Ethereum is sitting at a clear technical divide. Analyst Gert van Lagen says ETH’s two-week chart is forming a complex expanding diagonal under Elliott Wave analysis, a structure that could place the asset in the fifth and final leg of a multi-year pattern. If that reading holds, Ethereum could rally toward $10,000 to $22,000. The short-term picture is much weaker, though. Ali Charts said ETH first lost support at $2,073 and then broke below $1,825, a move that points to rising selling pressure.
Two-week chart points to a late-stage fifth wave
In van Lagen’s view, Ethereum has been building a multi-year structure since the 2022 bear market low. The chart shows a five-wave corrective sequence inside an expanding triangle, with wave one ending near the 2021 cycle top and wave four likely bottoming in the $1,700 to $1,800 range. That would leave ETH entering wave five, the final leg of the broader formation.
The most aggressive part of this thesis centers on the final “c” move inside wave five. Van Lagen’s chart marks an orange target zone between $10,000 and $22,000, aligned with the upper boundary of the expanding formation. The analysis also notes that Ethereum has posted higher highs and higher lows since 2022, a pattern that supports the longer-term bullish setup.
The recent low must hold for the long-term case
This scenario depends on one condition: the recent wave-four low needs to stay intact. Van Lagen warned that a clear break below that area would weaken the validity of the expanding diagonal and cast doubt on the long-term upside targets. In practical terms, the structure remains alive only if ETH keeps defending that lower zone.
Short-term momentum turned negative below $1,825
While the long-range chart leaves room for a major rally, the near-term setup has deteriorated. Ali Charts said Ethereum lost $2,073 first and then slipped under $1,825 within three days. That sequence of breakdowns signals that sellers have regained control of short-term momentum.
Recent price action shows ETH closing below $1,825 and trading around $1,746. That area had previously served as the main base during the consolidation phase. Once that floor gave way, the short-term structure tilted more clearly to the downside. Since peaking near $2,359, Ethereum has also been producing lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish tone on shorter time frames.
Next downside levels stand at $1,603 and $1,409
Under the bearish scenario outlined by Ali Charts, the next key support is $1,603. If selling continues, ETH may test that level in the coming sessions. Below it, the next significant support zone is $1,409. A recovery back above $1,825 would help relieve some of the immediate pressure and could interrupt the current bearish sequence.
For now, Ethereum is showing two different technical stories at once: a long-term pattern that still allows for a very large upside target, and a short-term breakdown that has put sellers back in charge. The market’s focus is likely to stay on $1,825 and the recent lower support area tied to the wave-four low.