Ethereum is still trading inside a clear downtrend after its recent crash. At the time referenced in the source, ETH was near $2,111, with a 24-hour range of roughly $2,080 to $2,287 and turnover close to $47.4 billion. The market message is fairly plain: a quick recovery to $3,000 in February is not the base case right now.
Short-term bounce appears, but the bearish structure remains intact
ETH did rebound toward $2,300 after one of its sharpest drawdowns of the year, but the move still looks more like a corrective bounce than a real reversal. On the four-hour chart, the MACD histogram turned green for the first time since late January, showing some easing in immediate downside pressure. Even so, the 26-period EMA remains above the 12-period EMA, which keeps the broader trend pointed lower. RSI is sitting in the mid-30s, still well below the neutral 50 level, a sign that sellers remain in control.
That leaves Ethereum in a fragile spot. Price can rebound in the short run, but the larger pattern has not changed yet.
Daily indicators show persistent outflows and a strong downtrend
The bigger issue sits on the daily chart. CMF remains firmly negative, signaling that capital is still leaving on balance. In DMI, the negative line continues to hold above the positive line, showing that bearish pressure has not let up. At the same time, ADX is near 39, which suggests this is not random volatility but a defined trend with meaningful strength. ETH is still printing lower highs and lower lows, the classic signature of a sustained decline.
Fibonacci retracement levels place Ethereum only slightly above the zero Fib line, leaving little room for confidence. For bulls to seriously reopen the path higher, price would need to reclaim $2,450 on expanding volume and then break above $2,818. Without that sequence, a clean move through the psychological $3,000 level this month looks difficult.
A bullish six-month case remains, but not on a February timetable
There is still a longer-term bullish view in the market. Crypto analyst Leshka argued that ETH could still rise 3x to 4x over the next six months. His view points to a prior cycle move from $56 to $1,151 and to what he described as a developing supply squeeze on centralized exchanges. Even so, that scenario depends on the current de-risking phase and drawdown fully running their course before accumulation returns.
Other major crypto assets were also under pressure in the source material. Bitcoin traded near $70,370, down about 7.9% over 24 hours, with market capitalization above $1.4 trillion. Solana changed hands around $90 to $91, lower by roughly 6% to 7% on the day, with market value near $51.5 billion. In that broader risk-off setting, Ethereum is still being treated as a high-beta asset, which leaves rallies vulnerable to renewed selling.