Ethereum fell back below the $2,000 support area on Feb. 16, wiping out weekend gains and trading near $1,980. Based on the technical view outlined in the source material, ETH may be more likely to test $1,500 before making a run toward the widely watched $2,500 psychological level.
Bearish pennant keeps pressure on the daily chart
The daily chart shows ETH still in a technical bear market after dropping about 60% from its all-time high of $4,960. The article says price action is forming a bearish pennant, a pattern built from a sharp decline followed by a symmetrical triangle. Those converging trend lines are now nearing their meeting point, and in this setup a downside break often appears as the triangle tightens.
ETH also remains below all moving averages, under the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, and beneath the strong pivot reverse level from the Murrey Math Lines framework. Put together, those signals support a bearish case with an initial downside target at $1,500, slightly above the token’s low from April last year.
Futures activity and ETF flows show softer demand
The article ties that bearish setup to fading demand across key market segments. Open interest in Ethereum futures has dropped to $23 billion, the lowest reading since 2024, down from nearly $70 billion at last year’s peak. That kind of contraction points to reduced participation and weaker speculative appetite. The market is thinner.
Spot Ethereum ETFs have also continued to post outflows this month. According to the report, those funds have lost more than $326 million in assets this month alone, marking a fourth straight month of net outflows. Over the last four months, total asset losses have surpassed $2 billion. That steady withdrawal of capital adds another layer of pressure to price action.
On-chain strength has not offset the bearish drivers
The source also lists several supportive developments for Ethereum. The staking queue has climbed to a record high, while the staking ratio has reached 30%. ETH supply held on exchanges has fallen to a record low, and transactions, fees, and active addresses have all increased. Ethereum also remains the preferred chain in the expanding real-world asset tokenization segment.
Even so, the article argues those constructive signals have not outweighed the bearish catalysts. It cites a Polymarket market showing 72% odds that ETH will fall to $1,500 at some point this year. In the current setup, weaker demand, lower open interest, and ongoing ETF outflows remain the factors carrying the most weight.