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Fed hike odds climb to about 90% as markets brace for a week dominated by major central banks

Fed hike odds climb to about 90% as markets brace for a week dominated by major central banks

N
News Editor
2026-09-13 06:09:00
Markets are heading into a pivotal week for global rates with policy decisions due from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. According to a report cited by PANews from Jin10, trading over the past week was driven by three main threads: repricing of Fed tightening, supply risks in the Middle East and moves in long-dated yields. Fresh U.S. inflation data sharpened that shift. August producer prices rose 5.4% year over year, above the 5.3% market forecast. August CPI came in at 3.4% year over year, unchanged from July and in line with expectations, while core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above the expected 0.2%. After the release, the interest-rate swaps market lifted the implied probability of a Fed rate hike next week to about 90%, up from 69% before the data. The market has also fully priced in two rate increases for the remainder of the year. U.S. equities pulled back over the week, though all three major indexes rebounded about 1% on Friday after the CPI release. Investors will also track U.S. retail sales, jobless claims, industrial output and earnings from homebuilder Lennar.
Federal ReserveBank of EnglandBank of Japanmacro dataCPIPPIUS stockspolicy regulation

Markets are entering a week centered on three major central banks, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all set to announce policy decisions. PANews, citing Jin10, said the past week’s trading was shaped by three key drivers: repricing of Fed tightening, supply risks in the Middle East and moves in long-end yields.

In the United States, August PPI and CPI data were released this week. Producer prices rose 5.4% year over year, above the market expectation of 5.3%. Headline CPI was 3.4% from a year earlier, unchanged from July and in line with expectations, while core CPI increased 0.3% month over month, above the expected 0.2%.

After the data, the interest-rate swaps market quickly raised pricing for a Fed rate hike next week to about 90%, up from 69% before the release. The market has even fully priced in two rate increases before the end of the year.

U.S. stocks also retreated from recent highs over the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.57%, the S&P 500 lost 0.8%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.66%. Still, after the CPI release on Friday, all three major indexes closed up about 1%, ending a four-session losing streak.

Key events for the week ahead

The following schedule highlights the main events investors will watch next week, all in Beijing time:

  • Tuesday 20:30: U.S. September New York Fed Manufacturing Index, U.S. August import price index month over month, and Canada July wholesale sales month over month.
  • Wednesday 17:00: Eurozone July industrial production month over month.
  • Wednesday 20:30: U.S. August retail sales month over month and U.S. August core retail sales month over month.
  • Wednesday 22:00: U.S. July business inventories month over month and U.S. September NAHB housing market index.
  • Thursday 02:00: Federal Open Market Committee rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections.
  • Thursday 02:30: Federal Reserve Chair Waller holds a monetary policy press conference.
  • Thursday 17:00: Final readings for Eurozone August CPI and Eurozone August core CPI.
  • Thursday 19:00: Bank of England rate decision.
  • Thursday 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 12, U.S. August housing starts annualized, U.S. August building permits, and the U.S. September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
  • Friday 11:00: Bank of Japan rate decision.
  • Friday 16:00: Eurozone July seasonally adjusted current account.
  • Friday 21:15: U.S. August industrial production month over month.
  • Friday 21:15: U.S. August Conference Board leading index month over month.

Earnings season nears its end

The U.S. second-quarter earnings season is largely over and will move into a lighter closing stretch next week. Even so, results from a few companies may still offer a read on macro conditions, with homebuilder Lennar’s earnings seen as especially important.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.
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