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Fed Holds Rates 9-3; CryptoQuant Analyst Sees Bitcoin Under Pressure
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News EditorThe Federal Reserve voted 9-3 on July 29 to keep its target rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, a decision that CryptoQuant analyst Novaque Research said differs from a rate cut and therefore brings no fresh liquidity stimulus. Bitcoin's internal demand indicators already reflect that constraint, according to the analyst. The Coinbase premium index has remained deeply negative, approaching -0.11, suggesting that bitcoin trades at a weaker price on Coinbase than on offshore exchanges and signaling subdued spot demand in the United States. Total open interest is still below the 100-day moving average, and CME options exposure has contracted sharply from its first-quarter peak. In addition, exchange reserves have climbed back to about 2.72 million BTC from an April low, meaning the amount of bitcoin readily available for sale has increased. Novaque Research argues that with U.S. demand soft, pausing rate hikes alone only prevents further tightening and fails to create the accommodative environment needed for higher prices. As a result, bitcoin remains likely to face downward pressure in the short term.
The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 on July 29 to keep its target rate range at 3.50%-3.75%, a decision that CryptoQuant analyst Novaque Research said does not amount to a rate cut and brings no fresh liquidity stimulus. On-chain metrics already reflect that constraint, the analyst said.
The Coinbase premium index has stayed deeply negative, near -0.11, indicating that bitcoin is priced weaker on Coinbase than on offshore platforms and pointing to soft U.S. spot demand. Total open interest remains below the 100-day moving average, while CME options exposure has contracted significantly from its first-quarter peak.
Exchange reserves have climbed back to roughly 2.72 million BTC from an April low, meaning the supply available for immediate sale has increased.
Against the backdrop of weak U.S. demand, a pause in rate hikes alone only prevents further tightening and does not create the accommodative conditions needed for higher prices. Novaque Research expects bitcoin to remain under pressure in the near term.
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