Odaily, citing The Wall Street Journal, reported that Nick Timiraos said the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting could be the hardest one to predict in years. Markets still broadly expect the Federal Open Market Committee to leave rates unchanged at its July 28-29 meeting, keeping the policy range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Even so, the outlook has become less straightforward. Timiraos pointed to a renewed rise in oil prices, mounting risks tied to U.S. tariff policy, and a shift among some officials toward supporting another rate increase. Those factors have put pressure on what had been a wider consensus around holding rates steady. The report also said the debate inside the Fed is not likely to end with this meeting. Some policymakers have already started laying the groundwork for another rate hike later this year. In earlier discussions, the Fed’s 18 officials were split evenly on whether another increase would be needed in 2026. UBS Chief U.S. Economist Jonathan Pingle said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could emerge as a key figure in determining the policy path.
Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the Fed’s mouthpiece, wrote on July 23 local time that the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting may be the hardest one to predict in years, according to a report carried by Odaily and attributed to The Wall Street Journal.
The report said a renewed rise in oil prices, growing risks around U.S. tariff policy, and a shift by some officials toward backing another rate increase have challenged the consensus for holding rates steady.
Markets still broadly expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep the policy rate unchanged at its July 28-29 meeting, with the current target range at 3.50% to 3.75%.
Still, the meeting outcome would not mean the internal debate is over. Some officials have already begun preparing the ground for another rate hike later this year. In prior discussions, the Fed’s 18 officials were clearly divided on whether rates would need to rise again this year, with half expecting another increase and the other half seeing no need for a change.
Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could become a key figure in determining the direction of policy.
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