Fed July Rate Hold Probability at 66.3%, September 50bp Hike Chance at 16.9%

AI News Editor

2026-07-01 13:01:21

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, with a 33.7% chance of a 25bp hike. By September, the odds of no change drop to 33.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike rises to 50% and a 50bp hike to 16.9%. These figures are consistent with pre-ADP expectations and have limited immediate impact on crypto markets.

Federal ReserveInterest Rate DecisionCME FedWatchRate Hike ProbabilityPolicy RegulationMacro Market

According to Jinshi data, the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged at its July meeting is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike stands at 33.7%.

Looking ahead to the September meeting, the probability of no change declines to 33.1%, the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike rises to 50%, and the probability of a 50bp hike is 16.9%. These figures are consistent with expectations prior to the release of ADP employment data.

The crypto market remains sensitive to rate expectations, though this short update has not triggered significant volatility. Participants should monitor upcoming inflation and employment data for potential shifts in the Fed's policy path.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.

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