The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 98.4% probability of no change, and only a 1.6% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This data underscores strong market consensus that the central bank will maintain its current stance.
June Rate Path: Minimal Expectations for Easing
Looking ahead to the June meeting, the FedWatch Tool indicates the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is merely 1.8%. The likelihood of rates staying at the current level stands at 96.6%, while the odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike are 1.5%. Both cutting and hiking scenarios remain highly unlikely, with rate stability as the base case.
Implications for Crypto Markets
A sustained high-rate environment typically weighs on risk assets, as higher risk-free yields reduce the attractiveness of assets like Bitcoin. However, the extremely low odds of a rate cut suggest the market has already priced in a “higher for longer” scenario. Recent crypto price movements have been more influenced by sector-specific narratives, such as ETF inflows and regulatory developments. Any dovish shift from the Fed could trigger a rebound in crypto prices.
Data Source and Analysis Tool
The CME FedWatch Tool calculates probability estimates based on federal funds futures contract prices. It is a key gauge of market expectations for Fed policy. The data snapshot is as of July 10, 2026. Probabilities are subject to change as new economic data (e.g., CPI, nonfarm payrolls) is released.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.