The Federal Reserve will announce its April interest rate decision today, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:00 PM ET. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 100% probability of rates staying at 3.50%–3.75% — the third consecutive hold. With inflation still above the 2% target, a resilient job market (unemployment ~4.3%), and rising oil prices, the Fed has little reason to rush into cuts. All attention shifts to Powell’s tone, which will guide market expectations for the next move.
Two Scenarios for Bitcoin and Altcoins
Hawkish Powell: If he stresses persistent inflation, higher oil prices, and delays rate cuts, the dollar strengthens, bond yields rise, and risk assets like Bitcoin face selling pressure. Historical patterns show BTC can move 5%–10% in a single session, with altcoins falling harder. Dovish Powell: A softer tone, hinting inflation may cool soon, would weaken the dollar, lower yields, and boost risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum could surge, with altcoins outperforming. Even a subtle hint of future cuts could trigger a breakout above current resistance.
Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe outlined key levels: Bitcoin is holding support near $73,500, keeping the structure bullish. The first hurdle is $80,646 — a break and hold above that opens the door to $86,549. On the downside, the $71,438–$73,408 zone must hold if a pullback occurs. Long-term target remains $100,739.
BTC Holds at $77,044 Ahead of Powell
Bitcoin trades around $77,044, stuck in the $73,500–$80,646 range. Volatility is expected post-FOMC. A hawkish outcome could drag BTC toward support; a dovish one may spark a rally past $80,646. Altcoins like ETH, XRP, and others will likely follow Bitcoin’s lead with amplified moves. With Powell’s term ending in mid-May 2026, this could be one of his last major appearances. Traders should brace for sharp swings and manage position sizes accordingly.