The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% this week, leaving little suspense around the headline decision. For crypto markets, the bigger issue is what the latest FOMC meeting says about the path ahead. That is where traders are looking for the next move.
Rate decision appears settled, guidance does not
According to the article, the CME FedWatch Tool shows roughly a 98% to 99% chance that the Fed will stand pat. Prediction markets are showing nearly the same view: both Polymarket and Kalshi price in a 99% probability of no change at the March 18 meeting, while odds of a 25-basis-point cut or a larger move sit at 1% or less.
The central bank had already paused in January after cutting rates three times in late 2025. With that backdrop, investors are paying far more attention to the Fed’s economic outlook, its policy language, and the chair’s press conference than to the rate call itself. Fed Governor Christopher Waller described the outlook as essentially a “coin toss”, a concise summary of the uncertainty now in play.
Inflation stays elevated while labor conditions soften
The policy debate is being shaped by conflicting economic signals. The piece notes that core PCE rose 2.9% year over year in January, still above the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, labor market conditions are easing, with unemployment rising to 4.4% in February.
That leaves policymakers with limited room to maneuver. Cutting rates could help support employment if growth weakens, but it could also risk reigniting price pressures. This is why the statement, projections, and tone from officials may matter more to markets than the unchanged rate itself.
Wall Street banks disagree on what comes next
There is little disagreement over this week’s outcome. Beyond that, forecasts split sharply. Goldman Sachs expects cuts in September and December, while Morgan Stanley sees reductions in June and September. Barclays also expects easing later in the year.
JPMorgan is taking the opposite side. The bank argues the Fed may avoid cutting rates altogether in 2026, and could even consider a hike in 2027 if inflation remains sticky. Those competing calls show how unsettled the macro picture has become.
Bitcoin may swing first, then look for direction
Crypto usually reacts quickly to Fed decisions because interest rates shape global liquidity and risk appetite. The article says Bitcoin and major altcoins have often fallen immediately after FOMC meetings. In 2025, Bitcoin declined after seven of the eight FOMC meetings, including periods when the Fed was cutting rates.
That pattern is often described as a “sell-the-news” move. Traders buy in front of the event, then take profit once the announcement lands. The same report adds that Bitcoin has often rebounded within 48 hours after an FOMC meeting.
If the Fed signals that rate cuts are unlikely in 2026, the article says Bitcoin could slide toward $65,000. If policymakers leave room for one cut later in the year, BTC may trade between $68,000 and $74,000. If the message shifts to two possible cuts, Bitcoin could move above $75,000, with altcoins seeing stronger gains.
Leadership change is part of the longer-term debate
The report also points to a potential shift at the top of the Fed. Chair Jerome Powell is expected to step down in May, and possible successor Kevin Warsh is generally seen as more hawkish on inflation.
Even so, the article notes that weaker economic growth could still push the central bank toward easing under new leadership. For now, traders are focused on the immediate event. As cited in the piece, the Fed typically releases its rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern Time after the FOMC meeting, followed by a press conference from the chair.