CME FedWatch: 69.5% Probability of No Rate Hike in July, September Odds Shift to 46.9% for 25bp Hike

News Editor

2026-06-29 00:31:24

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July stands at 69.5%, with a 30.5% chance of a 25bp hike. By September, the probability of no change drops to 40.4%, while the chance of a 25bp hike rises to 46.9% and a 50bp hike reaches 12.8%. These shifting rate expectations could influence crypto market sentiment as traders adjust to a potentially more hawkish Fed stance.

Federal Reserveinterest rate decisionCME FedWatchrate hike probabilitymacro policycrypto marketPCE data

July Rate Decision: Status Quo Still Dominant

According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at its July meeting is 69.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike stands at 30.5%. Market consensus currently suggests that the moderate slowdown in June PCE data will support the Fed staying on hold in the near term, yet persistent inflation keeps some traders betting on a single rate increase.

September Rate Path: Hike Probability Rises Significantly

Looking ahead to September, CME data shows the probability of maintaining current rates falls to 40.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike surges to 46.9%, making it the most likely scenario. Additionally, the probability of a 50bp cumulative hike reaches 12.8%, indicating growing expectations for more aggressive tightening later in the year. This shift reflects a reassessment of inflation resilience in the second half of 2026, with implications for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.

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