Fidelity Digital Assets' latest report reveals a historic milestone: Bitcoin's 'ancient supply'—coins that have remained untouched for over 10 years—has officially exceeded the number of newly mined coins each day. Approximately 566 BTC enter this dormant category daily, while only 450 BTC are mined. This shift underscores a structural change in market dynamics, with long-term holders displaying unprecedented conviction.
3.4 Million BTC Now Immobile, Valued Over $360 Billion
The report states that nearly 3.4 million BTC (including Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated holdings) are now classified as ancient supply, representing a value exceeding $360 billion. These coins have not moved in over a decade, indicating strong 'hodl' sentiment despite price fluctuations or external events like the 2024 U.S. election, which temporarily caused minor movements among long-term holders.
Fidelity notes that the rate at which coins become dormant now outpaces the pace of new issuance, effectively shrinking the liquid circulating supply. This trend amplifies Bitcoin's narrative as a scarce asset, especially as institutional investors accumulate via ETFs and custodial services.
Projected Growth: Ancient Supply Could Reach 30% by 2035
Looking ahead, Fidelity predicts that ancient supply could account for 30% of total Bitcoin circulation by 2035, driven by growing institutional participation. “Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity, reinforced by committed holders and lost coins, strengthens its unique value proposition as a non-sovereign store of value,” the report states.
The decline in available supply, coupled with rising institutional demand, could trigger a supply squeeze and support price appreciation over the long term. However, Fidelity cautions that a concentrated sell-off by ancient holders in a black-swan event remains a tail risk.