Fidelity Investments macro analyst Jurrien Timmer said speculative money has rotated out of crypto and gold and is now moving into technology shares, with semiconductor stocks drawing particular attention. He said speculative demand first clustered in Bitcoin, then shifted into gold, helping drive a near-vertical rally before moving on from metals.
Speculative flows moved from Bitcoin to gold, then into tech
According to Timmer, the earlier surge in gold was closely tied to concentrated speculative interest. He said gold is no longer trading mainly through the traditional real-rate framework. In past cycles, gold often moved inversely to real yields, but recent data suggests that relationship has weakened sharply. The market setup has changed.
Timmer said the break started in early 2022, when gold began to reflect global liquidity conditions more directly. Fidelity’s data points to broad money supply growth, or M2, as the main force behind the rally. When annual global M2 growth reached 12% at the start of 2026, gold climbed to a record $5,595.
Gold dropped to $3,959 as global M2 growth slowed
As global M2 growth fell from 12% to 7%, gold slid to $3,959. Timmer said the weakness in gold is understandable given slower money-supply growth, but he also argued that the decline in the metal has been much steeper than the moderation in M2 itself, suggesting the move may reflect an overreaction.
The comparison in the source material also showed the US Dollar Index rising to 101.8 after breaking through a key resistance area. That shift altered the broader pricing backdrop across asset classes. Gold, in Timmer’s view, is responding less to real rates and more to liquidity and dollar strength.
Dollar strength added pressure as Bitcoin struggled above $60,000
Timmer also said market expectations had turned toward the possibility that the Federal Reserve could reverse its recent rate cuts, helping lift the dollar. As central banks around the world became more hawkish, the dollar broke out of a long sideways range and established a clearer uptrend. Tighter financial conditions followed, weighing on risk assets.
Bitcoin has not been spared. Timmer said the cryptocurrency is struggling to hold above $60,000, while the redirection of speculative capital toward technology stocks has reduced near-term demand in crypto markets. A stronger dollar and tighter monetary conditions have added more pressure to digital assets.