Investors in cryptocurrency and blockchain-based financial services are closely watching Figure Technology Solutions Inc. (Nasdaq: FIGR), which has seen its stock drop approximately 60% from its 52-week high. Bernstein analysts have reaffirmed their Outperform rating with a $67 price target, implying more than 100% upside from the current trading range of roughly $31 to $32. The call comes despite a broader sell-off in crypto-linked equities, which Bernstein describes as a rare buying opportunity driven by temporary geopolitical and sentiment pressures rather than deteriorating fundamentals.
Behind the Sharp Decline
Figure Technology Solutions, founded in 2018 by SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney and June Ou, uses its proprietary Provenance blockchain to originate loans, tokenize credit assets, and operate Figure Connect, a marketplace linking loan originators with institutional capital. The company went public on Nasdaq in September 2025. Since then, Bernstein has published several detailed notes. In October 2025, it initiated coverage with a $54 target. By January 2026, it raised the target to $72 and named FIGR its top pick for the year. The latest note trims the target to $67 but keeps the bullish view intact.
Year-to-date, FIGR shares are down roughly 24%, and they have lost about 60% from their 52-week high, trading in the $31 to $34 range in early April 2026. Bernstein argues that the sell-off is overdone, pointing to strong operating metrics.
Strong Origination Growth
Figure reported Q1 2026 loan originations of $2.9 billion, more than double the prior year. Monthly volumes crossed $1 billion for the first time in March 2026, reaching $1.2 billion, a 33% month-over-month increase. This puts the company on an annualized run rate of roughly $12 billion. Bernstein projects full-year 2026 loan volume at $12.8 billion, a 53% year-over-year increase. Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) are expected to account for about $11.1 billion, with newer categories including auto loans, small business loans, and residential transition loans contributing approximately $1.7 billion.
Figure Connect and Tokenized Credit Dominance
The Figure Connect platform is central to this growth. Bernstein expects the platform to handle 56% of total loan volumes in 2026, up from 46% in 2025. In Q4 2025, Figure Connect processed about 54% of volumes. Figure holds an estimated 75% market share in the $17 billion tokenized private credit market, reinforcing its leadership in the space.
Revenue grew 48% over the trailing twelve months as of the March note. Bernstein projects a 48% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2027, applying a 25x EV/2027 EBITDA multiple to arrive at the $67 target. Q4 2025 results showed profit growth of 156% and revenue near $160 million.
Mixed Analyst Views and Institutional Moves
While Bernstein is bullish, other analysts are more cautious. Mizuho cut its target from $55 to $45 on March 26 but maintained an outperform rating. Bank of America downgraded to underperform in February with a $42 target. Needham lowered its target from $71 to $55 but kept a buy rating. Piper Sandler raised its target to $75 with an overweight rating in January. Among 11 analysts tracked by Marketbeat, two rate the stock a strong buy, five rate it a buy, one hold, and three sell. The average target is $53.75, below Bernstein's $67.
Institutional investors have taken small new positions. Wells Fargo increased its stake by 3.5% in Q4 2025 to 18,429 shares. Global Retirement Partners, Strs Ohio, MetLife Investment Management, and Flagship Harbor Advisors each established new positions during the same quarter. For contrarian investors, the key question is whether Figure can sustain its growth momentum in tokenized lending amid a challenging macro environment.