Bitcoin's most visible buyers are still active, yet broader market demand has turned weaker. A weekly CryptoQuant report showed 30-day apparent demand at negative 63,000 BTC in late March, indicating that selling across the market was running faster than institutions could absorb.
Over the same rolling 30-day period, ETFs purchased about 50,000 BTC, their strongest pace since October 2025, while Strategy accumulated roughly 44,000 BTC. Those two channels together absorbed around 94,000 BTC in March. Even with that support, net demand stayed negative, implying that retail participants, older whales, miners and funds sold roughly 157,000 BTC during the same stretch.
Large whale wallets have flipped into distribution
According to CryptoQuant, wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have moved from being the market's largest buyers to its largest sellers. The report describes the shift as one of the most aggressive distribution phases on record. A year ago, those wallets were collectively adding 200,000 BTC. They are now collectively removing 188,000 BTC, a swing of nearly 400,000 BTC from accumulation to distribution in about 18 months.
Mid-sized holders with 100 to 1,000 BTC are still accumulating, but at a much slower pace. Since October 2025, their annual additions have dropped from nearly 1 million BTC to 429,000 BTC, a decline of more than 60%. Buying has not stopped. It has slowed sharply.
The spot-realized price gap is narrowing fast
Bitcoin spot is trading in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, about 21% above its realized price of $54,286. Realized price represents the average on-chain cost basis of all coins, weighted by their last transaction. Historically, as long as spot remains above that level, the market is usually not at a cycle bottom.
The article notes that in 2022, the clearest low signal came when spot fell below realized price. Bitcoin traded under its aggregate cost basis from June through October that year, and the deepest discount, roughly 15% below realized price, aligned closely with the low near $15,500. The current setup is different, but the compression has been rapid. In late 2024, when bitcoin traded above $119,000, the premium to realized price was about 120%. Around 15 months later, that premium had narrowed to 21%.
Fear remains extreme while ETF inflows continue
Sentiment and fund flows are no longer moving in step. The Fear and Greed Index stayed between 8 and 14 over the past month, deep in extreme fear territory. At the same time, bitcoin ETFs still posted more than $1 billion in net inflows during March.
Apparent demand, whale positioning, realized price compression and the split between sentiment and ETF flows all point in the same direction. Institutional buying is still there, but the market's internal depth is getting thinner and the broader selling pressure has not been fully absorbed.