The crypto market is heading into the FOMC meeting with one dominant expectation: the Federal Reserve is likely to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The article cites CME FedWatch pricing showing a 98.9% probability of no change, a 1.1% chance of a hike, and 0% odds for a rate cut.
The two-day meeting is dated March 17-18, 2026. If the Fed stays on hold, it would mark the first pause after three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025. The piece says updated FOMC projections now point to fewer cuts ahead than previously expected, shifting attention from the timing of the next cut to how long rates may stay elevated.
Inflation and geopolitical pressure are keeping the Fed cautious
Earlier in the year, markets had priced in a more aggressive easing path for March, including expectations for 1 to 2 cuts. Some economists had even floated the possibility of 2 to 4 cuts if growth weakened more sharply. That view has cooled.
The reasons listed in the source are clear: inflation remains above the 2% target, with recent CPI readings near 2.4% and stickier core measures; U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher, adding inflation pressure; and while the labor market and growth have shown signs of softening, the slowdown has not been severe enough to force rapid easing. That leaves the updated Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot as the main signals for how the Fed sees the rest of 2026.
Bitcoin near $74,000 as traders brace for post-meeting volatility
The article argues that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins remain sensitive to Fed policy because they trade like risk assets. At the time referenced, the total crypto market was holding around $2.54 trillion. Bitcoin was at $74,136, slightly lower than the previous day, while Ethereum stood at $2,320. The altcoin index was listed at 55.
In the base-case setup, where the Fed holds rates and signals only limited cuts in 2026, the piece says crypto could still sell off on a classic “sell the news” reaction. Based on the scenarios it outlines, Bitcoin could slip 2%-6% in the short term and test the $68,000-$70,000 range, with altcoins potentially seeing larger swings.
Powell's tone and the dot plot may set the next move
If Chair Jerome Powell hints at a more accommodative path and leaves room for additional cuts, the article says both crypto and equities could rally. Under that scenario, Bitcoin may gain 3%-5% or more and move toward $75,000-$80,000.
A stricter outcome would be more negative for digital assets. If the Fed scales back 2026 cut expectations and leans on risks tied to oil shocks, war, or tariffs, the article says a sharper sell-off could follow. That would imply lower Bitcoin prices and heavier liquidation pressure across the market.
After the decision, traders are watching the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and incoming economic data for clues on the next possible cut. The source also notes that crypto has shown resilience in early 2026, and flows tied to Bitcoin ETFs could amplify the market response to future Fed meetings.