A researcher at crypto research firm Four Pillars said many onchain experiments are being shut down or reworked before proving product-market fit, with the pattern becoming more visible in 2026. In a post cited by ChainCatcher, researcher 100y_eth argued that the onchain market is splitting into two clearer ends. One side is driven by speculative demand, including meme coins, perpetual futures and prediction markets. The other is tied more closely to the real economy, including stablecoins, real-world assets, or RWA, and treasuries.
According to the researcher, as viable market opportunities narrow into a smaller set of categories, companies that started from very different positions are moving toward a similar product stack. The examples listed were Coinbase, Robinhood, MetaMask and Kalshi. The overlapping areas, he wrote, are perpetual futures, prediction markets, meme coins, stablecoins and RWA.
The note did not frame that shift as the end of onchain-native business models. Instead, 100y_eth said new categories can still emerge through experimentation and grow into sustainable markets.
ChainCatcher reported that Four Pillars researcher 100y_eth said many onchain experiments are being shut down or pivoted before they prove product-market fit, and that this trend is becoming more pronounced in 2026.
In the researcher’s view, the onchain market is increasingly splitting into two ends. One is centered on speculative demand, such as meme coins, perpetual futures and prediction markets. The other is made up of areas linked to the real economy, including stablecoins, RWA and treasuries.
100y_eth wrote that as the viable market narrows to a smaller number of categories, companies that began from different starting points — including Coinbase, Robinhood, MetaMask and Kalshi — are converging on the same product stack: perpetual futures, prediction markets, meme coins, stablecoins and RWA.
At the same time, the researcher said this does not mean the end of onchain-native businesses. New categories, according to the post, can still emerge through experimentation and develop into sustainable markets.
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