Fu Peng, the newly appointed chief economist at New Huo Group, said on July 24 that global assets, including major cryptocurrencies, are all anchored to liquidity conditions at the core. He said the shift from monetary easing to tightening is now producing what he called a market “concentration” trade, with capital flowing toward core assets that offer higher certainty.
According to Fu, the artificial intelligence industry has reached a key turning point and is moving from a hardware infrastructure phase marked by heavy spending into a stage focused on value verification. He said companies such as Google have seen free cash flow fall to zero, and that the capital market no longer endorses a logic built solely on expanding capital expenditure.
Fu said, “The AI industry chain is divided into upstream, midstream, and downstream. Each segment has its own independent industry life cycle, with clear sector rotation shifts and allocation window periods. Do not treat AI as a belief and hold it blindly for the long term. If the AI track turns into pure concept speculation, investors will run into trouble.”
He also said the full AI industry super-cycle lasts roughly 20 to 25 years, and that 10 years have already passed. In his view, the first decade was led by upstream hardware infrastructure, while the next decade will be led by end-user applications. He added that there is currently a cycle gap, making the next 10 to 18 months a transition window for the industry.
During that window, Fu said investors should avoid going all in and should instead follow the industry cycle closely in order to reduce volatility risk.
On the crypto market, Fu said it will also move with shrinking liquidity. After a broader shakeout, core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum should become more stable, while speculation in low-quality tokens will lose effectiveness. He added that market participants need to build positions in stages based on the industry cycle and remain alert to leverage risk.