Long-term money is still entering Bitcoin even as ETF investors keep pulling capital. In its weekly market update, Wintermute said funds with a longer holding horizon have been buying through over-the-counter desks instead of placing large visible orders on exchanges. Those purchases are being split into smaller trades to limit direct price impact. The firm said these buyers are not trying to call the exact bottom and see current levels as attractive on an 18-month view.
OTC buying builds quietly around key support levels
Wintermute identified $60,000 to $65,000 as a key support zone for Bitcoin and described that range as an important reference point for long-term investors deciding how large a position to hold. The report said the summer setup looks relatively weak, but current conditions resemble a market reset rather than a lasting breakdown. Because part of the demand is showing up in OTC markets, the pace of accumulation is not fully visible in exchange order books.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs lost about $2 billion in nine days
That steady OTC demand has been unfolding at the same time as heavy ETF redemptions. Over the past week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.4 billion in outflows, which Wintermute described as the longest sustained withdrawal period since the products launched. Ethereum ETFs posted another $240 million in outflows during the same stretch. From May 20 to May 29, combined outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reached about $2 billion. The report also said Strategy, the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin, started selling during that period, adding pressure to market sentiment.
Crypto trails the rally in equities
According to Wintermute, crypto assets have not kept up with the broader rebound in risk markets over the last two weeks. Capital has been rotating into Nasdaq names and Russell 2000 stocks, leaving digital assets outside the main flow. The S&P 500 has now posted nine straight weekly gains and rose 1.9% in the latest week, while the Nasdaq climbed 8% for the month. Wintermute said the buying impulse that lifted Bitcoin from $70,000 to $80,000 in April has faded, with marginal capital now moving into Nvidia, Dell and small-cap equities.
Inflation data and rate expectations remain in focus
The macro backdrop is also weighing on the gap between stocks and crypto. Wintermute cited April PCE data showing 3.8% on the headline measure and 3.3% on the core reading. In bond markets, the probability of a rate hike before year-end is being priced at roughly 35% to 40%. The firm said the third quarter could bring another stretch of stagnation alongside inflation pressure. It also argued that the equity rally has been driven more by strong earnings from AI-focused companies than by a genuine improvement in macro conditions. Crypto, lacking a similarly strong narrative, remains more exposed to those macro pressures. Near-term events on the calendar include Wednesday’s CPI and PPI releases and the Monday launch of CME Nasdaq crypto index futures.