Fundstrat says Ethereum may still have room to fall, but historical loss data suggests the market is already close to an extreme pain zone. Analyst Sean Farrell said the average cost basis for ETH investors is about $2,241, leaving the market with an average unrealized loss of roughly 22%.
Historical drawdowns point to two possible support levels
Farrell used prior market drawdowns to estimate where a bottom could form. If ETH follows the extreme conditions seen in 2022, when the average maximum loss reached 39%, the price could fall to around $1,367. Using the 2025 pullback as a reference, when the average maximum loss was 21%, the implied low would be about $1,770.
That leaves a possible support range between $1,367 and $1,770. The downside risk has not fully disappeared. Near-term pressure remains.
Realized-loss percentile is near an extreme since 2017
Fundstrat based its view on a realized-loss percentile model. According to Farrell, the current loss level sits at the 9th percentile since 2017, putting ETH in a historically severe loss zone. In earlier cycles, similar readings often appeared when sellers were close to exhaustion and prices were approaching a bottom.
Tom Lee agreed with that framework and said it can help investors think about positioning near potential lows. The report does not rule out more downside, but it shifts the focus to changing risk-reward conditions as losses move into historically stretched territory.
Model implies an 81% return over the next 12 months
Based on Fundstrat’s model, ETH has an implied return of 81% over the next 12 months from current loss levels. That does not confirm the bottom is already in place. It does suggest that, if historical patterns hold, the present drawdown has entered a range that long-term investors tend to watch closely.
For investors able to tolerate short-term volatility, the report’s message is clear: Ethereum could still decline, but the risk-reward profile looks materially different from what it did at higher prices.