Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act to pass in 2026 from 60% to 50-50. Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of research, said the bill could still reach the Senate floor in July, but securing the 60 votes needed in the chamber remains uncertain.
The bill is still listed on the Senate Legislative Calendar as No. 423. It has remained there since June 1, after the Senate Banking Committee approved it on May 14 by a 15-9 vote. Even so, Senate leadership has not scheduled a floor vote and has not announced a motion to proceed.
Negotiations remain open on ethics and regulatory language
Staff from the Banking and Agriculture committees are still working on how to combine their versions of the legislation. Thorn said several major issues are unresolved. Ethics provisions are still under discussion, with Senators Gallego and Booker seeking enforceable standards.
Another sticking point is conflict-of-interest language. The Van Hollen amendment failed in committee by an 11-13 vote. At the same time, law enforcement concerns are still focused on developer-protection language tied to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act provisions. Supporters of the bill have not released consolidated legislative text, and they have not provided a timetable for Senate consideration.
Competing bills are squeezing floor time before August
The Senate schedule is under pressure from other priorities. On June 24, President Trump canceled the planned signing of a bipartisan housing bill and said he would not sign it until Congress passes the SAVE Act. Majority Leader Thune said the SAVE Act does not currently have enough support in the Senate.
Lawmakers also still need to address FISA reauthorization and the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act. Thorn said these matters continue to compete for limited floor time before the August recess. In his view, a firm July floor commitment would improve the bill’s chances, while delays into mid-July would lower the odds of a 2026 vote.