Galaxy Digital has cut its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%, saying the Senate is running short on time to move the crypto market structure bill. If lawmakers do not advance it in July, the path gets much tighter once the August recess begins.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, said the firm had raised its estimate to 75% on May 22 after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill. That view has now been revised lower. In his view, Senate leaders need to move the legislation before lawmakers leave for the August recess in late July, or the practical window for passage closes.
Senate floor time is now the central hurdle
The bill still needs full Senate debate, an amendment process, and reconciliation between different committee texts. That takes time. Thorn said Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to put the bill on the floor in July for the remaining procedural steps to fit before recess.
He warned that anything later would leave too little room on the calendar. The bill also needs at least 60 votes in the Senate to avoid a prolonged debate process, which means supporters must resolve outstanding disputes without losing bipartisan backing.
Ethics and illicit finance provisions remain unresolved
Galaxy said it could raise its odds again if Senate leaders commit to a July vote and lawmakers settle the policy issues still open. For now, the main sticking points are provisions tied to ethics and illicit finance.
According to Thorn, those issues matter because they can affect support from senators who remain cautious on crypto legislation. Senator Cynthia Lummis has continued to press for a floor vote, saying the bill has already cleared committee and that the next step is the Senate floor. She also told CNBC that lawmakers are still working through ethics and illicit finance concerns ahead of a possible vote.
Other market watchers have also turned more cautious
Galaxy had previously lifted its estimate after the Senate Banking Committee approved the bill in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. Since then, the timeline has become a larger concern. JPMorgan later warned that the measure was running out of time this year and put the odds of passage below 50%.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan was even more guarded. He said some Washington insiders were placing the odds in a range of just 5% to 30%. The CLARITY Act remains one of the crypto industry’s main policy priorities, but its next move depends on whether Senate leaders can secure floor time, close the remaining gaps in the text, and return a revised bill to the House before election activity dominates the calendar.