ChainCatcher reported that, according to a Galaxy Research report, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle pattern remains intact, but the volatility range of each cycle is becoming narrower. The report compares the current market phase with previous Bitcoin cycles and concludes that Bitcoin is still moving within a cyclical framework, even as the distance between cycle highs and lows has declined compared with earlier periods.
Peak-to-trough declines have narrowed across cycles
The report states that the peak-to-trough declines in the 2013, 2017 and 2021 Bitcoin cycles were 85%, 84% and 77%, respectively. By contrast, the largest drawdown in the current cycle, measured from the October 2025 high to the present, has been only 51%. Galaxy Research therefore argues that the cycle structure remains relevant, but the scale of the current downside phase is milder than in previous cycles.
Based on that comparison, Galaxy Research describes the current cycle top as relatively moderate. The report says that because this cycle’s top was less extreme than those seen in earlier cycles, the eventual bottom of this cycle should also be relatively shallow. In its base case, Galaxy Research expects Bitcoin’s cycle bottom to fall within the $40,000 to $46,000 range, with the timing possibly before the fourth quarter of 2026.
Most bottom signals have not appeared
The report also emphasizes that only eight months have passed since the current cycle top. That is well below the 12 to 13 months historically required for Bitcoin cycle bottoms to form. From a timing perspective, the current adjustment has not yet matched the duration typically seen before prior cycle lows were established.
Galaxy Research further notes that most cycle-bottom signals have not yet emerged, and therefore concludes that the current cycle bottom has not formed. The main message of the report is that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still has reference value, while the narrowing size of each drawdown means the current bottom range and formation process differ from those of earlier cycles.