Gemini’s stock has fallen about 80% since its public debut, taking the crypto platform’s market value from roughly $4 billion at its peak to about $753 million. As trading volume, revenue and platform assets have declined, attention has shifted back to what a buyer could actually inherit: regulatory licenses, custody infrastructure and customer relationships.
CoinDesk said there is no indication of an active bid. Even so, Gemini’s regulatory approvals, customer base and custody setup could still make it attractive to a company seeking a regulated foothold in the U.S.
Takeover speculation returns as the stock sinks
Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto platform founded by billionaire twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has seen its price fall roughly 80% since going public. That decline has brought back a familiar question: could Gemini eventually become an acquisition target?
Lorenzo Valente, director of digital assets research at ARK Invest, argued in a post on X last month that Hyperliquid, the offshore perpetual-trading platform, should acquire Gemini and use it as a regulated U.S. gateway for perpetual futures and prediction markets. Valente also pointed to the twins’ concentrated voting control as a factor that could make a deal easier to negotiate.
There is no indication that Hyperliquid is actively pursuing a transaction, according to the report. Still, Valente’s proposal raises a broader issue. If Gemini’s regulatory infrastructure is worth more than its shrinking spot-exchange business, what exactly is the company’s value proposition to a buyer?
What Gemini may still offer a buyer
At present, Gemini’s market capitalization stands at $753 million, down from about $4 billion at its peak. The company’s second-quarter exchange revenue fell 38% from a year earlier to $12.5 million. Spot trading volume dropped 66% to $3.8 billion, while assets on the platform declined from $18.2 billion to $8.4 billion.
A venture capital investor told CoinDesk that Gemini’s exchange business is shrinking and that its core exchange technology may offer limited differentiation from rivals.
That same investor said Gemini, through its subsidiaries, still holds important regulatory licenses and approvals that would be costly and time-consuming for competitors to replicate on their own. A potential buyer would likely compare the cost of acquiring those entities with the time and legal expense required to secure the same approvals independently, the person said.
Crypto M&A is increasingly about licenses and access
The report places Gemini in a broader crypto M&A pattern, where buyers are paying more for regulatory infrastructure, distribution and market access than for trading volume alone.
CoinDesk cited several examples. Digital-asset services firm Keyrock bought BlockFills’ trading assets in July to add regulatory licenses, derivatives expertise and institutional clients. Tokenization firm Ondo has also been exploring a deal worth up to $500 million. LMAX and B2C2 have likewise explored strategic transactions as crypto companies look to expand through acquisitions instead of building every license and product internally.
CoinDesk also reported in April that prospective buyers had considered acquiring Gemini’s shuttered European and U.K. operations mainly for their regulatory licenses rather than pursuing a full takeover. That deal has not materialized, an investor who spoke on condition of anonymity said, because views on valuation differ.
Gemini declined to comment.
Winklevoss control could help a deal or block one
Shareholder control is another central factor. The Winklevoss twins effectively hold 94.5% of Gemini’s voting power, which means any negotiations would largely run through two people. In practical terms, that could simplify the process.
It also creates a hard limit. Because voting power is so concentrated, any sale would effectively require the brothers’ approval. A hostile takeover, or a shareholder-driven effort to force a transaction, would be virtually impossible.
The lower valuation reflects concern over shrinking trading volumes and continued losses. But it may also give a buyer a relatively inexpensive path to Gemini’s regulatory licenses, customer base and custody infrastructure.
The open question is whether any buyer could persuade the brothers to sell.