Glassnode said in its latest report that Bitcoin’s on-chain structure is still in a capitulation phase, even as some market indicators have improved after the latest pullback. The report said the short-term holder cost basis has fallen to about $68,500, below the realized market mean of roughly $75,800. At the same time, the cycle’s peak relative unrealized loss has reached about 25%, well below the more than 60% seen during capitulation periods in prior cycles. According to Glassnode, that suggests losses in this cycle have been milder, but also more widely distributed across market participants, which could mean the clearing process takes longer. The firm also said the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio stands at 0.75. Historically, that metric tends to drop below 0.5 before seller exhaustion appears, indicating that a true seller washout has not happened yet. Glassnode added that until the indicator climbs back above 2, any price recovery should be treated as a local rebound rather than evidence of a fundamental trend reversal. In derivatives, the 30-day perpetual futures directional premium has rebounded back into positive territory, while the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, pointing to a lack of meaningful recovery in U.S. spot demand.
Glassnode said in its latest report that Bitcoin’s on-chain structure remains in a capitulation phase, and that the current rebound should be viewed as a local bounce within a broader bottoming process.
The firm said the short-term holder cost basis has dropped to about $68,500, below the realized market mean of roughly $75,800.
Glassnode also said peak relative unrealized losses in this cycle have reached about 25%, clearly below the more than 60% recorded during capitulation periods in previous cycles. That points to a shallower loss profile in the current market, though losses are spread more broadly, which may require a longer clearing process.
The report added that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio is now 0.75. Historically, that metric usually falls below 0.5 before seller exhaustion sets in, which means a true seller exhaustion event has not appeared yet.
Glassnode said that until the indicator moves back above 2, any price rebound should be treated as a local recovery rather than a fundamental shift in market trend.
In derivatives, the 30-day perpetual futures directional premium turned sharply negative during the latest decline, but has now rebounded and returned to positive territory. That suggests leveraged traders are once again willing to pay a premium for long exposure, showing an improvement in speculative risk appetite.
Still, the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative. Glassnode said this stands in contrast to the improvement in perpetual futures and indicates that demand in the U.S. spot market has yet to show a meaningful return.
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