Glassnode's latest weekly report reveals Bitcoin remains under pressure near key on-chain cost basis levels, with short-term support at $83,400 and $80,700. The market requires sufficient holder conviction to prevent structural weakness from spreading. Short-term holders remain vulnerable, while the options market has turned defensive, signaling heightened downside risk awareness.
Loss of Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Makes Support Zone Highly Sensitive
After spot price failed to hold above the short-term holder cost basis (~$96,500), the market slipped into a shallow correction. The lower band of the compressed range (minus one standard deviation) sits at $83,400, forming critical near-term support. A breakdown would open the door to the True Market Mean at $80,700. A significant portion of recently acquired supply is now underwater, making short-term holders prone to capitulation selling. Currently, the proportion of short-term holder supply at a loss has dropped to 19.5%, far below the 55% neutral threshold, indicating no mass capitulation yet.
Liquidity Decisive; Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Needs Validation
Defending the $80,700–$83,400 support zone is crucial, shifting focus entirely to liquidity conditions. Any meaningful reversal must be confirmed by liquidity-sensitive indicators like the 90-day smoothed moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio. Historically, strong upswings required this ratio to rise and hold above ~5, signaling fresh liquidity. Currently, over 22% of circulating supply is at a loss, similar to Q1 2022 and Q2 2018. If price fails to hold support, long-term holders may face new loss realization, adding mid-term downside risk.
Spot ETF Outflows Slow, Buying Pressure Shows Signs of Recovery
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net flows have normalized, with the 30-day moving average hovering near zero after a period of outflows, marking a cooling of selling pressure from ETFs. However, the recovery is modest compared to the accumulation waves of early 2024 and late 2024, indicating cautious institutional demand. Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has turned upward across major exchanges, led by Binance's strong rebound, while the aggregated CVD has returned to positive territory. However, Coinbase remains range-bound, suggesting U.S.-led spot demand is stable but less aggressive than overseas flows. Marginal buying pressure is returning, but sustainability remains to be seen.
Perpetual Leverage Low; Options Market Shifts Defensive
Perpetual swap funding rates remain depressed, mostly near neutral, with speculative appetite fragile. In the options market, short-dated ATM implied volatility repriced sharply due to macro uncertainty, while longer tenors stayed stable. 25-delta skew turned negative across all expiries, reflecting increased demand for downside protection. Market maker gamma is short across a broad corridor from $90,000 down to the mid-$75,000s, enhancing downside sensitivity. Put volumes dominate but are orderly, not panic-driven. Sentiment is clearly defensive, but no crash pricing is embedded.
In summary, Bitcoin consolidates near structurally important on-chain levels, with a delicate balance between holder conviction and marginal demand. ETF selling pressure has eased, spot positioning shows early improvement, and derivatives remain subdued. For a sustained recovery, demand must gain support via both spot and ETF channels. If fragility persists, the market risks further consolidation or deeper correction.