Bitcoin has rebounded about 26% from its mid-August low, while U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds took in $2.23 billion over the same period, marking the strongest seven-day inflow stretch of the year with no single day of net outflows, according to Glassnode. The analytics firm also said Bitcoin balances on exchanges have declined and wallets across size cohorts have been accumulating at the same time.
Glassnode said supply overhead is concentrated in the $81,000 to $86,000 range, where several market structures overlap, including hot-money cost basis, re-listed sell orders, dealer gamma flip levels, and short liquidation bands. The firm linked the current move to a record short squeeze on Aug. 19. During that squeeze window, 85% of liquidations were shorts, which Glassnode described as the largest single-day short closeout in its dataset since 2019.
At the same time, futures open interest measured in BTC fell 11%, while funding rates stayed near neutral. In Glassnode’s reading, that points to a rally driven mainly by short covering rather than fresh leveraged long chasing. Options pricing, it added, suggests the move could persist into late September, with roughly $83,300 as an upside level to watch, and the $70,000 cost basis zone plus $62,000 to $65,000 as support below.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has rebounded about 26% from its mid-August low, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.23 billion in net inflows over the same period. The firm said that was the strongest seven-day inflow stretch of the year, with no single day of net outflows.
Glassnode also said Bitcoin held on exchanges has declined, while wallet cohorts across different size bands have been accumulating in parallel.
Supply overhead sits between $81,000 and $86,000
The firm said supply ahead is concentrated in the $81,000 to $86,000 range. In Glassnode’s view, that zone overlaps with hot-money cost basis levels, re-listed sell orders, market maker gamma flip levels, and short liquidation bands.
Aug. 19 short squeeze identified as the trigger
Glassnode said the current advance was ignited by a record short squeeze on Aug. 19. Within the squeeze window, 85% of liquidations were shorts, making it the largest single-day short closeout in the firm’s dataset since 2019.
Futures open interest, measured in BTC terms, fell 11%, while funding rates stayed broadly near neutral. Glassnode said that suggests the move was driven mainly by short stop-outs rather than new leveraged long positioning.
Options market points to late-September window
Glassnode added that options pricing suggests the move may hold through late September. The upside level in focus is around $83,300, while support is seen at the $70,000 cost basis zone and the $62,000 to $65,000 range.
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