Glassnode said the yield on Bitcoin’s three-month futures basis has remained below the U.S. two-year Treasury yield since February, a condition that has now lasted for months. The on-chain analytics firm said there has been only one comparable stretch in history, from August 2022 to January 2023, which later aligned with the low of the previous market cycle. According to Glassnode, a persistently weak futures basis points to soft leverage demand and also weighs directly on market depth and trading volumes. The report added that futures basis is commonly used as a gauge of risk appetite and demand from arbitrage capital. When basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, investors are taking on futures exposure without receiving enough additional return for that risk. That setup can reduce the incentive for capital to enter the futures market, weakening liquidity and overall trading activity.
Glassnode said the yield on Bitcoin’s three-month futures basis has stayed below the U.S. two-year Treasury yield since February, and that condition has now persisted for months.
The firm said there has been only one historical period with a similar duration, from August 2022 to January 2023. According to Glassnode, that stretch ultimately aligned with the low of the previous market cycle.
Glassnode said a prolonged slump in futures basis reflects weak demand for leverage. It also directly affects overall market depth and trading volume.
Analysts said futures basis is commonly used to measure market risk appetite and demand from arbitrage capital. When basis yield drops below the risk-free rate, investors are not receiving enough extra return for the risk they take by holding Bitcoin futures. That can reduce capital flows into the futures market and weigh on liquidity and trading activity.
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