Rafael, cofounder of on-chain data platform Glassnode, posted on X that Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high of $109K, currently trading around $62K with a 24% monthly decline. The price has breached the upper tier of his pricing framework and entered a valuation cluster that historically marked bottoms.
Three-Tier Valuation Framework: From Overvalued to Undervalued
Rafael outlined a three-tier on-chain pricing model. The upper tier held during the bull run, but weakness has pushed Bitcoin into the middle tier—a zone that served as key support in past cycles. The current price range has moved from "overvalued" to "fair value" and even the edge of "undervalued." He stressed that bottoms cannot be pinpointed in advance; only probability ranges and key price levels define potential reversal signals.
Key Support: Realized Price and 200-Week MA
Bitcoin has broken below the median holder breakeven level (the cost basis of the average holder) for the first time since December 2022. Historically, prices below this line indicate deep unrealized losses and raise the probability of a rebound or base formation. Bitcoin now sits between two critical long-term supports: the realized price at ~$64,100 and the 200-week moving average at ~$61,700. The current price is below the realized price, and the 200-week MA is under test.
Probable Bottom Range: $46K to $54K
Rafael identified a high-probability bottom zone between $46,000 and $54,000. A more extreme selloff to $35K–$40K would represent a rare "capitulation tail" event. Notably, Bitcoin's cycle drawdowns have been shrinking: previous bear markets saw drops of ~85%, 84%, and 77%, while this cycle only declined about 50% from the peak. This suggests the bottom is more likely at the upper end of the range, though macro shocks could trigger deeper corrections.
Macro Headwinds: A Market Under Pressure
The crypto market faces multiple headwinds: uncertainty around Fed rate policy, escalating global trade tensions, and persistent ETF outflows. Rafael advises investors to focus on valuation zones and key support lines to manage risk, rather than trying to call the exact bottom, and to look for entry points with favorable risk-reward ratios.