Bitcoin is still trading inside a defensive range, according to Glassnode, with price caught between the $55,000 realized price and the $79,200 true market mean. The firm said the $60,000 to $72,000 zone is still absorbing sell pressure, while a large overhang of underwater supply between $82,000 and $97,000, and again from $100,000 to $117,000, is limiting rebound attempts.
On-chain cost bands are defining the market
Glassnode breaks Bitcoin’s post-peak move into three phases since the high set last October: a sharp sell-off with repeated tests of the true market mean, a sideways stretch through late January, and the latest leg lower after price fell below that mean and moved toward the $60,000 area. In its view, the current trading range is now framed by $79,200 on the upside and $55,000 on the downside. Without a strong recovery above the upper boundary, or a major shock severe enough to break the lower one, the most likely path is continued consolidation inside that band.
The $60,000 to $72,000 area stands out because it was already a dense trading zone during the first half of 2024 and has again acted as support. UTXO realized price distribution suggests coins accumulated there have not been widely distributed at current levels. That matters. It points to holders still defending the range, though the report also makes clear that repeated tests will continue if fresh demand does not become more consistent.
Short-term holders remain underwater
One reason rallies are struggling is the condition of newer buyers. Glassnode said short-term holders are broadly sitting on losses, leaving little confidence among recent market entrants. Its short-term holder profit ratio, a metric often used to gauge local tops during bear market rebounds, is now just 4.9%. That means only a small share of recent buyers are in profit.
This cuts both ways. It reduces the amount of immediate profit-taking from newer holders, but it also shows that fresh capital has not returned in force. Rebounds may happen, yet they are not finding enough follow-through. At the same time, the dense supply clusters above spot remain a problem. If price stalls for too long, or drops again, those underwater positions could turn into renewed selling.
Institutional outflows and weak spot demand are reinforcing the setup
Off-chain signals are pointing in the same direction. Glassnode said digital asset holdings tied to ETFs, corporations and governments have all shifted into net outflows at the same time. ETFs remain the main driver, but the broader pattern matters more than any single category. The firm’s reading is that institutions are reducing risk exposure across the board, while spot buyers have not shown enough strength to absorb that supply.
Spot trading volume briefly rose as Bitcoin fell into the lower $70,000 area, and the 7-day average moved up as well. But the spike was tied to the sell-off itself and faded quickly. In Glassnode’s view, that is reactive flow rather than active accumulation. The market saw turnover and forced positioning adjustments, not sustained buying interest that would point to stabilization.
Perpetual futures have cooled, options still lean defensive
Derivative markets are no longer adding much momentum. Perpetual futures premiums have been compressed back toward neutral, showing that leveraged traders have stepped back and directional conviction has weakened. The report describes this as a sign of lower speculative appetite. With less support from leveraged positioning, spot demand becomes even more important for any durable move.
Options markets are still pricing protection. Glassnode said the repricing was visible across maturities: 6-month at-the-money implied volatility rose by 5 points, 3-month by 9 points, and the front end saw the sharpest move, with 1-week implied volatility jumping by more than 20 points. Even after some cooling, implied volatility remains elevated, indicating that traders still expect uncertainty to persist.
The skew data tells the same story. During the sell-off, 1-month and 3-month 25-delta skew dropped sharply as traders bought puts. On January 28, put premium in those tenors was about 8%. It has since widened to 23% and 19%. Open interest heatmaps also show broad downside hedging: the largest near-term concentration for February expiry sits between $60,000 and $70,000, while longer-dated protection extends across the $50,000 to $30,000 range. Glassnode’s conclusion is that positioning remains defensive, with the market still balancing inside a stressed range rather than preparing for a clean upside breakout.