Glassnode said Bitcoin’s early-January 2026 rebound has stalled near $98,000, where recent buyers appear willing to sell around breakeven. In the firm’s view, the move off the lows reflects easing sell pressure more than a broad wave of aggressive demand.
$98,000 emerges as the near-term ceiling
On-chain data shows Bitcoin still trading inside a fragile range. The lower end is supported by the true market mean at $81,100, while the upper end is capped by the short-term holder cost basis. Glassnode compared the setup to the first quarter of 2022, when repeated failures to reclaim the recent buyer cost zone prolonged consolidation.
The report said the latest rebound has partly filled the supply gap between $93,000 and $98,000, as earlier buyers distributed coins to newer entrants and created a fresh cluster of short-term holder supply. Above $100,000, though, supply remains broad and dense. Those coins are gradually migrating into long-term holder balances, leaving a sizeable block of overhead supply in place.
Loss realization and light profit-taking are hitting the same area
Realized loss data by coin age points to the heaviest loss-taking from holders in the 3-to-6 month cohort, followed by the 6-to-12 month group. Glassnode said that pattern is consistent with investors who bought at higher levels and are now exiting as price returns closer to their entry zone.
At the same time, realized profit data shows a notable rise in selling from wallets locking in gains in the 0% to 20% profit band. That suggests a market where some participants are selling as soon as they get back to flat, while others are taking small tactical gains instead of holding for continuation. The result is repeated supply release near key cost levels.
Spot conditions improve, but treasury and derivatives flows stay selective
Off-chain signals have turned somewhat firmer. Binance and aggregate exchange CVD have moved back into net buying territory, and Coinbase, which had been a meaningful source of sell pressure during range trading, has seen that net selling pace slow sharply. That points to weaker sell-side pressure on major spot venues and better absorption of available supply.
Glassnode was careful not to overstate the shift. The report said buying is still selective rather than broad-based. Digital asset treasury flows also remain scattered, oscillating around the zero line and driven by isolated events instead of a coordinated accumulation trend. Corporate demand, for now, is only a marginal source of support.
Muted futures, short-dated options stress, and $90,000 as a friction zone
In derivatives, the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin futures volume continues to contract. Recent price swings have not been matched by a clear increase in turnover, which Glassnode reads as a sign of low participation and restrained leverage use. Changes in open interest look more like position adjustment and risk rebalancing than fresh risk being added.
Options activity has been concentrated at the front end of the curve. Since the Sunday sell-off, 1-week implied volatility has risen by more than 13 volatility points, while the 3-month tenor is up only about 2 points and the 6-month tenor is barely changed. Over the same stretch, 1-week 25-delta skew flipped sharply toward puts, moving roughly 16 volatility points in that direction and reaching a put premium near 17%.
Glassnode added that, as of January 20, the 1-month volatility risk premium stood at roughly 11.5 volatility points, keeping the backdrop favorable for options sellers. Dealer gamma positioning is split: below $90,000 it is negative, which can amplify downside through hedging flows, while above $90,000 it turns positive and can dampen upside. The report’s read is that Bitcoin may be trying to build a base, but the market remains thin, cautious, and highly sensitive to modest shifts in positioning.