Glassnode says Bitcoin entered 2026 with a cleaner market structure after a deep pullback and months of consolidation. In the first week of the year, BTC broke above the trading range near $87,000, rose about 8.5%, and reached a local high of $94,400. The move came as on-chain profit-taking pressure cooled sharply. In late December 2025, the 7-day average realized profit fell from more than $1 billion per day for much of the fourth quarter to $183.8 million.
Supply overhead remains heavy between $92.1K and $117.4K
That drop in realized profit points to a major release of selling pressure, especially from long-term holders. Still, Glassnode notes that the rebound is now pushing into a supply zone shaped by investors who bought near prior highs. Their cost basis is clustered between $92,100 and $117,400. As price revisits that area, some holders may use the bounce to exit at breakeven or with small gains, creating resistance overhead.
The report identifies the short-term holder cost basis as the key recovery level. Its model mean sits near $99,100. A sustained move above that level would indicate stronger conviction from newer market participants. The short-term holder MVRV has recovered from 0.79 to 0.95, but that still implies recent buyers are sitting on roughly 5% unrealized losses on average, leaving the market short of a full return to profitability.
Spot ETF flows turn positive again while futures participation rebuilds
Off-chain demand indicators have also started to improve. According to Glassnode, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted back to net inflows after persistent outflows at the end of 2025. The absolute size of inflows has not returned to mid-cycle highs, but the directional change is now visible and points to renewed institutional spot demand.
Bitcoin treasury demand from corporate entities remains in place, though the report describes it as pulse-like rather than continuous. Buying tends to appear during local pullbacks or consolidation phases, making it more opportunistic than structural. Futures markets show a steadier sign of recovery. After the late-2025 deleveraging event, total open interest stabilized following a retreat from cycle highs above $50 billion and has started to edge higher, indicating traders are rebuilding exposure at a measured pace.
Options reset clears old positioning and new flows lean bullish
Bitcoin options saw a major reset into year-end. Open interest dropped from 579,258 contracts on December 25 to 316,472 contracts after expiry on December 26, a decline of more than 45%. Glassnode says this removed a large amount of inherited positioning that had been shaping price action through dealer hedging and limiting volatility around key strikes.
After that reset, implied volatility hit a short-term low during the Christmas period, with 1-week IV falling to its lowest level since late September. Buying interest then returned at the start of the year, lifting the volatility curve modestly. Even so, implied volatility from the 1-week to 6-month tenors remains compressed in a range of about 42.6% to 45.4%, still near the lower end of the past three months.
Directional positioning has shifted as well. Put premiums relative to calls have narrowed over the past month, and the 25-delta skew curve has moved back toward zero. Over the last seven days, call buying accounted for 30.8% of total options activity, call selling made up 25.7%, and put-side trades represented 43.5%. Glassnode reads that mix as a move away from pure downside hedging and toward more active upside positioning.
Dealer hedging above $95K could add fuel to an upward move
The report highlights a key zone between $95,000 and $104,000, where dealer positioning has turned net short. If Bitcoin trades higher into that range, dealers may need to buy spot or perpetual futures to hedge, creating mechanical support for the move instead of dampening it. At the same time, traders have been concentrated in buying calls expiring in the first quarter with strikes between $95,000 and $100,000, reinforcing the shift in risk appetite.
Glassnode also points to the premium behavior of $95,000 calls as a direct signal of market sentiment. On January 1, while spot was still near $87,000, call premium buying at that strike began to accelerate. The premium kept rising as Bitcoin moved toward $94,400. After that, the pace flattened but did not reverse, and there was no sharp increase in call premium selling. In Glassnode’s view, that suggests bullish traders have not rushed to take profits and are still holding upside exposure.