On-chain analytics firm Glassnode warns in its latest report that while trading volumes have slightly rebounded from cycle lows, indicating initial liquidity restoration, the spot market remains fragile. The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) has deteriorated, signaling rising seller dominance and a more defensive short-term stance.
Bitcoin Rejected at $90K, Enters Consolidation
Bitcoin stalled at the $90,000 resistance and entered consolidation. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) retreated to neutral territory, cooling momentum. Prices are oscillating between mid-$80,000 and low $90,000, reflecting the market's reassessment of directional conviction.
Derivatives Divergence: Futures Rise, Perpetuals Deeply Negative
Derivatives positioning shows divergence: futures open interest edged higher, suggesting a mild rebound in speculative participation; long funding rates surged, indicating renewed willingness to pay for bullish exposure. However, perpetual swap CVD has turned deeply negative, highlighting strong selling pressure in the leveraged market.
U.S. Spot ETF Outflows Exceed Statistical Extremes
Net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs have reversed to heavy net outflows, exceeding statistical extremes, signaling significant institutional de-risking. Although ETF trading volume rose, reflecting active rebalancing, ETF holders' profitability remains high, keeping profit-taking risk elevated.
Overall, the market remains in a fragile consolidation phase. While initial signs of participation rebuilding are emerging, the high degree of institutional de-risking, defensive options positioning, and sensitive speculative sentiment mean that spot-led demand must be reignited to establish a sustainable uptrend.