Global Macro Risk Accumulation and Liquidity Drain
Metrics Ventures' latest monthly report highlights that global supply chain disruptions since 2022 have progressively weakened the economic resilience and monetary-fiscal policy autonomy of major economies such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe. This is accumulating momentum for future volatility in global capital markets. Market trends reveal that aside from AI and select non-ferrous metals sectors, liquidity drain is now a reality. Although an immediate bubble burst is not imminent, these fragile nations are increasingly doubling down on concentrated trading — a risky bet given the current geopolitical and economic landscape.
Technically, concentrated trading has entered the middle-to-late stage. Key observations include: Japanese and Korean equity indices are at major resistance in their long-term channels (supported by state-directed transfers); the US dollar index has broken above its one-year resistance; the 10-year Treasury yield remains stable while the 2-year yield has formed an uptrend. Notably, SK Hynix's leveraged fund size has surpassed that of Tesla, as a large number of white-collar workers lose their unit human capital premium and are forced into the endless game of capital markets.
Dark Clouds over Crypto: MSTR and Bitcoin's Unique Risks
Metrics Ventures emphasizes that the fragile world line has rapidly gathered into thick dark clouds above prices since late last year. For the first time, the market must seriously evaluate the possibility of MicroStrategy (MSTR) continuously selling off its ~800,000 BTC holdings. With demand persistently absent, Bitcoin's cost-effectiveness as a hedging/shorting tool against other assets continues to rise, making its medium-term outlook bleak.
When liquidity is expected — or actually — contracts, a wave of leveraged funds will begin algorithmic liquidity realization during Asian (Japan/Korea) trading hours. This shock will propagate to global fear indices and trigger larger waves. Underlying civil unrest and chronically fragile economies (long-term poison drinking) will further amplify sentiment swings. Bitcoin will not escape unscathed; we need to consider its positioning and tradable direction more carefully. The bottom may be more shocking than currently thought, but deeper correction levels are not a panicked fantasy.
Precious and Base Metals: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Opportunity
For gold and silver, short-term macro pressure comes from countries' strong desire to exchange dollars for commodity inventories (e.g., Turkey's central bank). However, this shock is precisely the “squat” before the real major rally. The complete failure of the Strait of Hormuz marks the beginning of dollar loosening; post-hike market turmoil will eventually lead to a looser future. For copper and other small metals, the game is more complex; we tend to believe there will be a brief sweet spot when the tightening expectation game reaches its extreme. Risk brings opportunity; share and forge ahead.
