Overall Capital Flow: Safe Havens Lose Favor, Tech Stocks Absorb Liquidity
According to the latest analysis by The Kobeissi Letter, since April, U.S. gold and Bitcoin-related ETFs have recorded cumulative net outflows of approximately $12 billion. Meanwhile, semiconductor ETFs have seen net inflows of about $20 billion. This data clearly indicates that market capital is shifting en masse from traditional safe-haven assets (gold) and crypto assets (Bitcoin ETFs) toward technology-growth sectors represented by semiconductors. The scale of this capital movement is historically rare, signaling a fundamental change in investor risk appetite.
Mid-May Acceleration: Outflows and Inflows Both Surge
The trend intensified further in mid-May. The outflow volume from gold and Bitcoin ETFs more than tripled, while semiconductor ETF inflows doubled. This acceleration shows that market sentiment has moved from cautious watchfulness to actively chasing high-growth areas. Macro factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations and the explosion of the AI industry are jointly catalyzing the reallocation of capital. Retail investors are particularly active, and their trading behavior is driving markets in an unprecedented manner.
Specific ETF Performance: Gold and Bitcoin Under Pressure, Semiconductors Lead
In terms of market performance, the world's largest gold ETF, GLD, has fallen about 13% since early April, while the spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has dropped about 12% over the same period. In contrast, semiconductor ETFs SOXX and SMH have recorded gains of approximately 81% and 60%, respectively. The simultaneous decline of gold and Bitcoin—representing traditional safe-haven assets and emerging risk assets—combined with the surge in semiconductor stocks confirms that funds are concentrating on AI and chip-making sectors. This divergence suggests that the market is viewing AI-related industries as a new growth engine, rather than a mere cyclical tech rally.
Risk Appetite Shift: Retail Investors at the Helm, Market Structure Reshaped
Analysts believe the current market is undergoing a pronounced 'risk appetite switch.' Retail capital is accelerating its exodus from gold and Bitcoin ETFs and flooding into semiconductor and AI-related sectors. This capital flow not only changes the price trajectory of individual assets but may also restructure the entire market landscape. If this trend continues, gold and Bitcoin may face sustained selling pressure in the near term, while semiconductor sectors could continue to receive incremental inflows. However, investors should also be wary of overconcentration risk—once AI industry expectations correct, capital could flow back rapidly.