The Kobeissi Letter says gold’s one-day drop ranks among the most extreme in nearly 20 years

The Kobeissi Letter said on X that gold posted an unusually sharp one-day decline, describing the move as one of the rarest daily drops seen in nearly two decades. According to the account’s figures, gold has averaged a daily move of +0.05% since 2006, with a standard deviation of 1.19%. Based on that framework, the latest sell-off translates to a Z-score of -2.90, placing it deep in the left tail of the return distribution. The post added that, under a normal distribution estimate, a one-day decline of that size carries a probability of roughly 0.2%. In practical terms, it said, such a move would occur about once every two years on average. The Kobeissi Letter linked the sell-off to a surge in US Treasury yields, arguing that the jump in yields is creating an unusual shock across precious metals markets. The comments were cited by Odaily in a market analysis brief published on Sept. 29, 2026.