Gold just recorded its worst week in 43 years, dropping more than 12% to settle at $4,381, while silver slid to $68.8. Bitcoin, however, held above $70,951, printing a series of higher lows since early February — a clear divergence that is catching analysts' attention.
Technical Setup: Higher Lows Point to $77-80K
Michaël van de Poppe highlighted on X that Bitcoin has been forming constant higher lows since the February crash, a pattern he interprets as building momentum. His near-term target is $77,000 to $80,000, provided current support holds. But he also cautioned: those higher lows create liquidity zones; if the market revisits them, forced selling could trigger. The structure is constructive but not risk-free.
BTC/Gold Ratio Signals Capital Rotation
While gold sold off, Bitcoin appreciated against it. Analysts increasingly point to the BTC/GOLD ratio as the more instructive chart. Gordon, founder of Crypto Crib, argued the rotation is already underway: Bitcoin is moving parabolic against gold, with capital leaving precious metals for crypto. He expects further downside for gold and silver in coming weeks as Bitcoin works back toward $100,000. CryptoAmsterdam summed it up: “The rotation from gold into Bitcoin will be biblical.”
Cathie Wood’s Historical Pattern: Gold Leads, Bitcoin Follows
Cathie Wood of ARK Invest provided data-driven insight. Since 2019, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has been just 0.14 — almost no linear relationship. However, her data shows gold tends to lead Bitcoin. Specifically, gold's major rally in 2025, Wood argues, has set up Bitcoin's next leg higher, regardless of gold's current pullback. Large gold moves have historically preceded significant Bitcoin rallies. In recent commentary, she circled the present moment and concluded: “We actually think it will [follow].”
Tokenized Gold Hit, but RWA Market Still Growing
Gold's slide wiped roughly $1 billion from the tokenized commodities market cap. XAUT and PAXG — the two dominant tokenized gold products — make up over 70% of the $6.68 billion tokenized commodities market; both declined with spot gold. Yet total on-chain real-world assets (RWA) stand at $26.5 billion, up 5% over the past 30 days. Capital is leaving tokenized gold but staying on-chain.
Van de Poppe's technical structure is constructive, Wood's historical pattern is in play, and the rotation thesis is gaining momentum. The setup is there — timing remains the only open question.