Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for the global optical module market in a September industry report, lifting its 2026, 2027, and 2028 market value estimates to $68 billion, $131 billion, and $148 billion. Those figures are 33%, 81%, and 115% above its previous projections. The bank said the revision was driven by the expansion of rack-scale AI servers and ASIC servers, higher optical module usage per GPU, and an ongoing shift toward 1.6T and 3.2T specifications.
Written by Rita
According to the report, network bandwidth demand from AI data centers is pushing the optical module market into a period of simultaneous volume and price growth. Goldman Sachs said the compound annual growth rate for the 800G-and-above optical module segment stands at 69%.
Rack-scale AI servers drive higher shipment forecasts
Goldman Sachs said AI servers are moving from single-card configurations toward rack-scale systems, creating the structural basis for a sharp increase in high-speed optical module demand.
The bank raised its shipment forecasts for 800G-and-above optical modules for 2026 through 2028 from 59.7 million, 104 million, and 126 million units to 78.2 million, 144 million, and 171 million units. That represents upward revisions of 31%, 39%, and 36%. Within that group, products at 1.6T and above show the strongest growth, with increases of 29%, 61%, and 50% across the three years.
By product tier, Goldman Sachs expects 800G and 1.6T shipments in 2026 to reach 45 million and 33 million units. In 2027, those figures are projected at 49 million and 71 million units. For 3.2T, the report forecasts growth from 23 million units in 2027 to 68 million units in 2028.
The bank said rapid 3.2T adoption is one of the most notable structural changes in the new forecast set. By 2028, 3.2T is expected to account for 40% of high-speed optical module shipments, versus almost zero in 2026.
On the server side, Goldman Sachs forecasts NVIDIA rack-scale AI server shipments at 50,000 racks, 92,000 racks, and 148,000 racks from 2026 to 2028. AMD is projected at 5,000, 13,000, and 15,000 racks over the same period. A denser rack architecture means more GPU interconnect demand, which in turn pushes optical module usage per rack sharply higher.
ASIC server growth is another major factor in the report. Goldman Sachs expects ASIC chips to represent 50%, 52%, and 55% of total AI chip volume from 2026 to 2028. The report said GPU servers usually deploy two to three optical modules per GPU, while ASIC servers, because single-chip compute capability is relatively lower, rely more heavily on network interconnection to distribute workloads and therefore use more optical modules.
Silicon photonics gains ground on cost, with stronger adoption above 1.6T
Goldman Sachs said silicon photonics is becoming the main technology path for high-speed optical modules, with cost acting as the main driver.
Its analysis shows that a 1.6T silicon photonics module uses four 70mW CW lasers, with laser cost at roughly $15 to $20. A 1.6T EML design uses eight 200G EML lasers, with laser cost around $160. On lasers alone, the cost advantage of silicon photonics is close to an order of magnitude, according to the report.
Goldman Sachs expects silicon photonics penetration in 800G-and-above optical modules to rise from 68% in 2026 to 74% in 2028. In higher-speed products such as 1.6T and 3.2T, the share is higher, at 60%, 80%, and 80% from 2026 to 2028.
The report also identified CPO, or co-packaged optics, as another technology direction taking shape. Goldman Sachs expects CPO penetration in 800G-and-above optical modules to rise from 1% in 2026 to 9% in 2028. It said CPO remains at an early stage, but higher integration between switch chips and optical engines could lead to more visible shipment growth in 2027 and 2028.
Supply chain names covered in the report
Goldman Sachs said it assigned buy ratings to the supply chain companies covered in the report.
- Optical module or optical engine manufacturers: Eoptolink and FOCI
- CW laser or epitaxial wafer suppliers: LandMark and VPEC
- Equipment supplier: RoboTechnik
The report said faster silicon photonics adoption puts structural pressure on traditional EML laser suppliers, while CW laser vendors and silicon photonics integration providers stand to benefit from product mix upgrades. Over the longer term, CPO could open new room for growth for optical engine and packaging equipment suppliers.
Market growth shifts from unit volume to specification upgrades
Goldman Sachs said the optical module market is moving from a model driven by shipment volume to one driven by specification upgrades. Shipment growth is slowing, but value per unit is rising. Prices for 1.6T and 3.2T products are well above 800G, and the cost advantage of silicon photonics is accelerating that upgrade path.
The report said that when the selling price of each optical module moves from the hundreds of dollars into the thousands, market value can grow faster than shipment volume.
This article is a整理与解读 by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage report from Goldman Sachs dated Sept. 7, 2026, combined with public market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in the text are the views of the brokerage analysts and represent only the position of their institution, not the view of Chaoxiang Research, and they do not constitute investment advice.
Markets involve risk, and decisions should be made independently. The article should not be used as the basis for buying or selling any securities.
Chaoxiang Research @chaoxiangooo
