Goldman Sachs said in an Aug. 23 research note that it has lifted its forecasts for wafer front-end equipment, or WFE, for 2026 through 2028 to $150 billion, $218 billion and $281 billion, respectively. The new figures are 6%, 17% and 35% above its previous estimates.
The bank now sees year-over-year growth for those three years at 36%, 45% and 29%, compared with earlier projections of 28%, 32% and 12%. According to the note, DRAM and advanced-process foundry spending are the main near-term drivers behind the revision.
In DRAM, Goldman Sachs raised its capital expenditure forecasts for Samsung and SK Hynix by 22% and 19%. It said HBM4 mass production is driving demand for tools such as etch and deposition equipment. On the foundry side, the bank increased its annual capital spending estimate for TSMC by $8 billion and said the N2 process has entered the mass-production ramp stage.
Goldman Sachs added that NAND and logic/other, including Terafab, are expected to contribute in the medium term. It also said roughly $16.8 billion in initial-stage Terafab equipment spending committed by SpaceX and Tesla has been incorporated into its WFE forecast.
Goldman Sachs said in an Aug. 23 research note that it raised its wafer front-end equipment (WFE) forecasts for 2026, 2027 and 2028 to $150 billion, $218 billion and $281 billion, respectively, up 6%, 17% and 35% from its previous estimates.
The bank now expects year-over-year growth of 36%, 45% and 29% across those three years, compared with its earlier projections of 28%, 32% and 12%. Goldman Sachs said DRAM and advanced-process foundry demand are the main near-term drivers.
In DRAM, it raised capital expenditure forecasts for Samsung and SK Hynix by 22% and 19%. The note said HBM4 mass production is boosting demand for equipment used in etch and deposition. In foundry, Goldman Sachs lifted its annual capital spending estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) by $8 billion and said the N2 process has entered the mass-production ramp stage.
The note added that NAND and logic/other, including Terafab, will pick up in the medium term. Goldman Sachs said about $16.8 billion of initial-stage Terafab equipment spending committed by SpaceX and Tesla has been included in its WFE forecast.
Goldman Sachs also said it is bullish on global semiconductor equipment stocks, with key picks including Applied Materials, Lam Research, ASML, Tokyo Electron, ASMI, BESI, Lasertec and Ebara.
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