Goldman Sachs kept its 2026 U.S. GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, only 0.3 percentage points below its projection at the start of the year, and said markets have overstated the drag from higher interest rates and rising oil prices.
In its U.S. economics note published on Sept. 28, 2026, Goldman said the net change in financial conditions has been small. Higher rates were almost fully offset by rising stock prices, tighter credit spreads, and a weaker dollar. On Goldman’s estimates, the net impact on 2026 GDP is just 0.1 percentage points.
Goldman analyst Abhay Duggirala said third-quarter growth is expected at 3.4%, with full-year growth at 2.2%, close to the 2.3% potential growth rate. The bank estimated that the oil shock would subtract 0.3 percentage points, mainly through consumption, as higher energy prices cut into real purchasing power.
U.S. energy producers were initially reluctant to raise capital spending because of uncertainty surrounding the Iran war and the oil price outlook. In recent months, however, the rig count index has moved higher, pointing to a pickup in energy capex in the third and fourth quarters.
Financial conditions show little net change
Goldman’s financial conditions index shows that overall conditions have barely changed since January. Rates rose sharply, but three factors offset that move: higher equity prices, narrower credit spreads, and a weaker dollar.
The bank estimated that the effect of financial conditions on fourth-quarter 2026 GDP growth is only 0.1 percentage points. It also said the impact of higher rates is uneven across the economy. Using the Federal Reserve’s FRB/US macro model, Goldman found a clear drag on residential investment, while small boosts to consumption and business investment offset part of that weakness.
Residential investment faces the greatest rate sensitivity. Goldman estimated a drag of about 2.6 percentage points there, while consumption and business investment each receive a lift of about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, leaving the net GDP effect at roughly 0.1 percentage points.
Oil prices are seen cutting full-year growth by 0.3 percentage points
Goldman said the oil shock hits GDP mainly through the consumption channel. Its rule of thumb suggests that every sustained $10 increase in oil prices trims GDP growth by slightly more than 0.1 percentage points through consumption.
Applying that framework to this year’s oil price path, unusually wide refined-product crack spreads, and commodity strategists’ year-end oil price forecast, Goldman estimated a 0.4 percentage point drag on GDP growth.
That hit is partly offset by a rebound in energy capital spending. Goldman estimated that the net effect of weaker consumption and stronger capex is 0.3 percentage points. Simulations using the FRB/US model and an exogenous oil shock model produced similar estimates. Goldman said the average result from those two alternative approaches is consistent with its rule of thumb, leaving the net drag from oil at about 0.3 percentage points for full-year GDP growth.
Consumption is the main source of resilience
Goldman said consumption has held up better than its models implied. Based on actual market and commodity price moves, the bank’s oil shock model showed a 0.6 percentage point drag on consumption, partly offset by a 0.2 percentage point wealth effect from higher stock prices, for a net drag of 0.4 percentage points. That would imply consumption growth of 2.0%.
Actual data, however, showed consumption growth of 2.2%, or 0.2 percentage points above the model estimate. Goldman said that upside surprise in spending is the main reason the U.S. economy has looked resilient.
The report added that tighter financial conditions and higher oil prices together subtract about 0.4 percentage points, while Goldman’s full-year forecast revision is slightly smaller than that amount. The modest upside surprise mainly comes from consumer spending. Residential investment has been hit by higher rates, but resilience in consumption and business investment has offset part of the drag.
Source note and disclaimer
This article is based on a TechFlowPost summary and interpretation by Rita of a third-party broker research report from Goldman Sachs dated Sept. 28, 2026, combined with public market information. Any ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in the source reflect the views of the broker’s analysts and represent only the position of their institution. They do not represent the view of Chaoxiang Research and do not constitute investment advice.
The source also stated that markets carry risk and decisions should be made independently. The article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.
