Goldman Sachs said U.S. pension funds could sell about $33 billion worth of equities around the end of September, a flow it said sits in the 98th percentile since 2000. The bank also said systematic commodity trading advisor, or CTA, flows could offset part of that pressure depending on how markets trade.
In Goldman’s scenario analysis, CTAs would buy $11.5 billion in global equities if stocks are flat. If the market rises, that buying could approach $30 billion. If stocks fall, however, CTAs could flip and become additional sellers, with selling estimated at $15.8 billion. The call points to a potentially large rebalancing window at month-end, with pension-related outflows and systematic positioning both in focus.
The figures were cited by BlockBeats in a Sept. 30 market update.
Goldman Sachs expects U.S. pension funds to sell about $33 billion in equities around the end of September, according to a Sept. 30 market update cited by BlockBeats. Goldman said the size of the flow ranks in the 98th percentile since 2000.
At the same time, systematic commodity trading advisor, or CTA, flows may offset part of the pension selling pressure.
If stocks stay flat, CTAs are expected to buy $11.5 billion in global equities. If the market rises, the buying could approach $30 billion. If stocks fall, CTAs could turn into additional sellers, with an estimated $15.8 billion of extra equity selling.
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