Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said the market is largely split between two frameworks for judging when Bitcoin’s bear market may end. One camp still follows the traditional four-year cycle and treats the halving as the main force behind Bitcoin price cycles. Based on past patterns, that view suggests Bitcoin has often bottomed about one year after a cycle peak and roughly 2.5 years after a halving, with an average drawdown of around 80%, leaving room for a possible bottom in September or October this cycle. The other camp sees Bitcoin as a more mature asset whose price is increasingly driven by macro conditions, especially economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in Federal Reserve policy. Pandl said past Bitcoin bear markets often coincided with slower growth or rising real rates, and that the current decline also came as rate-hike expectations strengthened and real yields moved higher. He added that he leans toward the macro-driven explanation and said Bitcoin may have already bottomed if the Federal Reserve stops raising rates and economic growth remains stable.
Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said the market is mainly split between two views on when Bitcoin’s bear market may end.
One view follows the “four-year cycle.” Under that framework, halving events remain the core driver of Bitcoin price cycles. Historically, Bitcoin has usually bottomed about one year after a cycle top and roughly 2.5 years after a halving, with an average drawdown of around 80%. If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could still fall further in this cycle and form a bottom in September or October.
The other view treats Bitcoin as a mature asset driven more by macro forces. In that case, Bitcoin would increasingly trade like other major assets, with economic growth, real interest rates, and shifts in Federal Reserve policy carrying more weight.
Pandl said several past Bitcoin bear markets coincided with slower economic growth or rising real rates. He added that the current decline also took place as expectations for rate hikes increased and real rates moved higher.
He said he leans more toward the macro-driven view. If the Federal Reserve does not raise rates further and economic growth stays stable, Bitcoin may have already found its bottom.
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
