Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said the market is split between two main views on when Bitcoin’s bear market could end. One camp still follows the traditional four-year cycle, arguing that halving events remain the main force behind Bitcoin price cycles. Under that framework, Bitcoin has historically bottomed about one year after a cycle peak and roughly 2.5 years after a halving, with an average drawdown of about 80%, suggesting the current cycle could still fall further and bottom in September or October. Pandl also outlined a second view, which treats Bitcoin as a more mature asset increasingly driven by macroeconomic conditions such as growth, real interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy. He noted that several past Bitcoin bear markets coincided with slowing economic growth or rising real rates, and said the current decline has also unfolded as rate-hike expectations and real yields moved higher. Pandl said he leans toward the macro-driven view. If the Federal Reserve does not raise rates further and economic growth remains stable, he said Bitcoin may have already found its bottom.
Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said in a July 23 post that the market currently holds two main views on when Bitcoin’s bear market may end.
One view follows the “four-year cycle.” Under that framework, halving events are still seen as the core driver of Bitcoin price cycles. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to bottom about one year after a cycle peak and around 2.5 years after a halving, with an average cumulative drawdown of roughly 80%. Based on that pattern, Bitcoin could still decline further in this cycle and find a bottom in September or October.
The other view treats Bitcoin as a mature asset that is increasingly driven by macro factors. In that case, Bitcoin’s price would be influenced more by economic growth, real interest rates, and shifts in Federal Reserve policy, much like other major assets. Pandl said several past Bitcoin bear markets were accompanied by slower economic growth or rising real rates. He added that the current downturn has also taken place against a backdrop of rising expectations for rate hikes and higher real yields.
Pandl said he is more aligned with the macro-driven view. If the Federal Reserve does not raise rates further and economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin may have already bottomed.
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