Grayscale said this week could mark a turning point for Bitcoin, pointing to a gap between the current drawdown and prior market cycles. In its note, the firm said Bitcoin has historically bottomed after falling about 80% from a cycle peak. In the latest bear market, however, Bitcoin has declined about 50% from its cycle high, a smaller drop than in every previous cycle at this stage. The comment comes as the market has been debating whether Bitcoin could face another round of declines in the fourth quarter of 2026. Grayscale said risks still remain, but added that this week’s advance may indicate Bitcoin has already built a firmer bottom. The view stops short of ruling out downside, yet frames the latest move as a potentially important sign in the broader cycle discussion.
Grayscale said on Aug. 22 that this week may prove to be a turning point for Bitcoin.
According to the firm, historical data show that Bitcoin has typically found a bottom after dropping about 80% from a cycle top. In the most recent bear market, by contrast, Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its cycle high, and the decline at this point is smaller than in all previous cycles.
The market had previously been debating whether Bitcoin could enter another downturn in the fourth quarter of 2026. Grayscale said risks are still present, but added that this week’s rally may suggest Bitcoin has already formed a more solid bottom.
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