Digital asset manager Grayscale signaled a potential turning point in Bitcoin markets on April 21, citing on-chain data that may indicate a durable bottom. The firm pointed to strengthening price performance and improved investor positioning as early signs of a shift toward bullish conditions.
Grayscale Research stated on social media platform X: “Grayscale Research believes BTC’s blockchain data could signal a durable market bottom has occurred.” The firm added: “$BTC has rallied nearly 20% since February 5th. Recent buyers are back at breakeven around ~$74K.”
Cost Basis Convergence Reinforces Stability
On April 21, Bitcoin traded at $75,577, remaining near the upper boundary of a recent recovery range after rebounding from a sharp early-February decline that briefly pushed BTC into the lower $60,000s. Recent candlesticks indicate modest consolidation just below resistance near $78,000, with buyers consistently defending higher lows. Since then, BTC has advanced to $78,772 as of this writing.
Chart data shared by Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl showed Bitcoin declining to roughly $63,000 in early February before rebounding to around $76,000 by April. Meanwhile, the realized price for coins transferred within one to three months followed a different path: it rose through much of 2025, peaked above $110,000 around late 2025, then trended downward into 2026 toward approximately $74,000. This downward adjustment in realized price, alongside recovering spot levels, brought the two metrics into alignment. The convergence indicates that recent buyers have returned to breakeven, a condition often associated with stabilizing market behavior and reduced forced selling.
Pandl explained: “If Bitcoin’s price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market.” He added: “Bitcoin’s price is still well below its October highs, but many recent buyers are back to breakeven—potentially signaling that Bitcoin has put in a durable market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range.”
On-Chain Data Supports Bottom Thesis
The convergence of spot price and short-term realized price is a classic sign of market stabilization. When recent buyers are no longer underwater, the risk of cascading liquidations diminishes, and the market becomes more resilient to shocks. Grayscale’s analysis aligns with broader on-chain metrics from Glassnode, which have also highlighted the declining realized price as a key factor in resetting cost bases.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $74,000 breakeven level in recent days suggests that demand is absorbing supply at these levels. If the price continues to climb and breaks above the $78,000-$80,000 resistance zone, it could confirm the start of a new bullish phase. According to Grayscale, such a move would bring more recent buyers into profit, reinforcing a positive feedback loop.
While Bitcoin remains well below its all-time highs, the structural improvement in holder behavior and cost basis alignment provides a constructive backdrop. Grayscale’s report serves as a data-driven counterpoint to bearish narratives, emphasizing that bottoms are often formed not in panic destruction but in quiet convergence of on-chain metrics.
Looking ahead, the key catalyst will be whether Bitcoin can sustain its recovery and establish a new higher trading range. If the market can absorb selling pressure near the breakeven zone and push prices higher, the probability of a new bull cycle increases significantly. The coming days will be critical for validating this bottom structure.