Grayscale Research said in a June 18 report that AAVE is undervalued at around $75, with fair value rising to as high as $175 over the next year in a bullish scenario. The firm placed crypto assets on a spectrum ranging from pure commodity-like assets to cash-flow-driven ones, and said AAVE, UNI, and SKY sit closer to the latter group.
The report centered on the income-generating capacity of DeFi protocols. According to Grayscale, DeFi protocols have produced nearly $25 billion in protocol fees since 2023. Its view is that DeFi is no longer defined only by speculation, and that some protocols are starting to resemble real income-generating assets, even if the market has not fully priced that shift.
Aave revenue growth anchors the valuation case
Grayscale said Aave’s protocol revenue has increased by more than 6.6 times over the past three years, with an operating profit margin of about 50%. Its model projects that Aave will generate roughly $60 million in protocol revenue in 2026. Those figures form the basis of the valuation framework laid out in the report.
Using traditional fintech valuation references, Grayscale applied a 20x to 25x price-to-earnings multiple. On that basis, it estimated Aave’s current fair value market capitalization at roughly $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion, implying a token price range of about $80 to $100. Even that base case sits above the current trading level near $75.
The $175 case depends on regulation and RWA adoption
Grayscale said the upside case to $175 depends on faster regulatory clarity and broader adoption of tokenized real-world assets, or RWA. In that setup, Aave could be among the earlier beneficiaries as one of the largest lending protocols tied to the overlap between DeFi and traditional finance.
The report also cautioned that protocol revenue alone does not determine token value. In DeFi, value can accrue through token burns, buybacks, rebates, and staking, while tokenomics design and governance decisions can materially change how revenue is reflected in price.