Grayscale says crypto valuations could recover more meaningfully as oil prices retreat and geopolitical pressure starts to ease. Zach Pandl, the firm’s head of research, said on March 23 that digital assets had held up well since the start of the war with Iran. By March 25, energy markets had reversed sharply as diplomatic signals changed trader expectations, with oil benchmarks down more than 5%. Brent crude slipped below $100 to about $98.28 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell to roughly $87.68.
Grayscale’s view is that a lighter macro backdrop could open room for a stronger recovery in crypto pricing. The firm said, “Crypto has held up well since the start of the war with Iran. Valuations could see a more meaningful recovery once macro risks recede, in our view.”
Oil pullback reduces the geopolitical premium in markets
Earlier in the move, supply fears had pushed oil up by about $40 per barrel, lifting one-year swap rates across major economies and weighing on equities, government bonds, and precious metals. Grayscale said that inflation-driven repricing is now being partly unwound as reports point to a possible one-month ceasefire, including a 15-point proposal sent to Tehran and signs that Iran may allow non-hostile vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
That shift has lowered the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting futures markets. If macro stress continues to fade, pressure on risk assets may also ease. Grayscale’s argument rests in part on crypto’s relative stability during this period rather than on a sharp breakout in prices.
ETF inflows and rising perpetual futures interest support the setup
According to Grayscale, digital assets have posted modest gains even during broader market volatility, helped by internal market conditions and better sentiment. The asset manager said the selloff from October through early February reduced speculative positioning, which created room for a gradual rebound. Since then, spot crypto exchange-traded products have seen net inflows, and open interest in perpetual futures has moved higher.
Those signals suggest the market is not relying only on macro relief. Positioning and fund flows inside crypto markets have also turned more constructive, though the source material does not provide exact figures for inflows or open interest growth.
Regulatory changes and institutional activity add to the case
Grayscale also pointed to sector-specific developments. Progress tied to the CLARITY Act, along with updated positions from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission classifying most digital assets as non-securities, has improved the regulatory tone. On the institutional side, Mastercard’s planned acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure provider BVNK was cited as another sign that large financial players are still building in the sector.
The firm added that decentralized blockchain networks remain structurally detached from geopolitical disruptions. Bitcoin, for example, continues producing blocks regardless of external events. That does not remove market volatility, but it does highlight that the network’s core operation does not depend on changes in global political conditions.