Crypto trading and market-making firm GSR said in a research report that it reviewed more than 2,300 token listings on major exchanges since 2013, with the dataset including delisted tokens.
Listing performance in the dataset
The report said the median listed token fell below its issue price within three days and was down 50% within 90 days.
The authors were Josh Riezman, GSR’s chief legal and strategy officer, and research analyst Slater Santer.
Circulating supply and FDV figures
According to the report, median circulating supply at listing fell from 38% in 2017 to 13% in 2020. In most later years, it only partly recovered to the mid-teens and low-20% range.
Grouped by issuance fully diluted valuation, or FDV, median circulating supply declined as issuance FDV increased: 97% for tokens below $10 million, 28% for $10 million to $100 million, 16% for $500 million to $1 billion, and 13% for more than $1 billion.
One-year return comparison
Tokens issued at more than $1 billion FDV posted a median one-year return of -81%, the report said.
By circulating supply, tokens with less than 20% circulation lost about 75% after one year, while those in the 30% to 50% range lost about 45%.
Measured by capital remaining after one year, the median value of an investment in the above-$1 billion FDV group was about $0.19. For tokens with circulating supply below 20%, about $0.23 to $0.26 remained, compared with about $0.55 for tokens in the 30% to 50% circulation range.