HanCe (7856) wrapped up its public share subscription on Sept. 14. Data from the exchange, cited by ABMedia, showed 1,048 lots were open to investors, and the underwriting price was NT$2,250 per share. The draw is set for Sept. 16.
By the afternoon of Sept. 14, the exchange still had not updated the final count of valid applications or the final winning rate.
8ZZ shares his application screenshot
Investment influencer 8ZZ got in on the subscription too. ABMedia reported that he recently posted a screenshot of his HanCe public share application on Facebook and wrote, “I borrowed money from everywhere and finally scraped together NT$2.2 million. Whether I can turn my life around depends on this one.”
Each application needed more than NT$2.25 million
For this offering, HanCe set the underwriting price at NT$2,250 per share. Each investor was allowed to apply for one lot, or 1,000 shares. Then came the extra costs. With a NT$20 handling fee and a NT$50 mailing fee for the winning notice added in, each applicant had to keep NT$2,250,070 in the account.
The exchange’s public subscription schedule showed the application window ran from Sept. 10 to Sept. 14. In all, 1,048 lots were offered. The draw is scheduled for Sept. 16, and the stock is expected to start OTC trading on Sept. 22.
Big spread between underwriting price and gray-market trading range
Needing more than NT$2.25 million just to apply is not normal for a standard stock lottery. But investors still piled in. ABMedia said the big reason was the wide spread between the underwriting price and HanCe’s recent trading range on Taiwan’s Emerging Stock Board.
Earlier numbers compiled by Chain News showed HanCe had recently traded at around NT$4,885 to NT$5,200 on the Emerging Stock Board. Using NT$5,200 a share as the reference point, the paper gain versus the NT$2,250 subscription price would come to nearly NT$2.95 million for one lot. And at even higher traded prices, the market at one stage was talking about a possible spread of more than NT$3 million for a winning lot.
Market estimate suggests a 0.33% success rate
In just the first two subscription days, HanCe had already pulled in 243,598 applications. That figure included 143,285 on day one and another 100,313 on day two. Frozen funds across those two days were estimated at about NT$548.1 billion.
Market estimates cited in the report said that if money kept coming in on the final subscription day, total applications could top 320,000 and frozen funds could hit NT$720 billion. If applications really do reach 320,000, the success rate would be about 0.33%—roughly one winning lot for every 305 applicants. Even if you only use the first two days’ total of 243,598 applications, the success rate would still be just about 0.43%, or around one lot for every 233 applicants.
As of Sept. 14, the exchange still had not released the final number of qualified applications or the final success rate.