On July 10, 2026, Joseph Au, a member of Hong Kong's Legislative Council, delivered a cautionary speech at the 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Festival regarding the potential threat of quantum computing to the cryptocurrency industry. He estimated that quantum computing could become a practical concern in more than five years, but urged the industry to begin proactive preparation at the cryptographic level.
Quantum Threat 'Five Years Away' but No Room for Complacency
Au noted that quantum computing technology is advancing faster than many anticipate. Although current quantum computers lack the scale and stability to break commonly used public-key cryptography such as ECDSA, exponential growth in qubit count and error correction improvements could make them a real threat within five to ten years. A recent Glassnode report indicated that approximately 6.04 million BTC reside in addresses with outdated, quantum-vulnerable signature formats, underscoring the urgency of upgrading.
Hong Kong's Stable Edge vs. U.S. Legislative Delays
Au highlighted Hong Kong's regulatory edge, noting that political instability in the United States could cause prolonged delays in digital asset legislation. In contrast, Hong Kong has already established a clear licensing regime for virtual asset service providers (VASPs) and the Securities and Futures Commission's (SFC) ASPIRe roadmap. This regulatory certainty provides a foundation for preempting quantum threats. He called on Hong Kong to seize the window by setting quantum-resistant encryption standards and attracting global developers.
Web3 Progress: Licensing and Interoperability Key
Reviewing Hong Kong's Web3 development, Au cited the VASP licensing regime which has granted multiple licenses to exchanges and custodians, as well as the SFC's ASPIRe roadmap for tokenized assets and stablecoin regulation. However, he identified insufficient technology developers and lack of cross-jurisdictional interoperability as major bottlenecks. He recommended increased government funding for quantum-safe cryptography R&D and promoting compliance interoperability with mainland China, Singapore, and the Middle East.
Paving the Way for the Post-Quantum Era
Some industry players have already taken tentative steps. For instance, AmericanFortress has proposed a soft fork to protect Satoshi's Bitcoin from quantum attacks, while AI-driven quantum computing research is accelerating—both a threat and an opportunity. Au believes Hong Kong can leverage its 'one country, two systems' advantage and financial infrastructure to become the first crypto hub to complete quantum-safe upgrades.
"Don't wait until the first quantum computer capable of cracking Bitcoin private keys arrives to regret," Au concluded. "Every investment in cryptography and regulation today is an investment in the industry's security for the next decade."